The Pittsburgh Pirates (23-41) and Washington Nationals (27-35) open a three-game series Monday with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP JT Brubaker is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 4-5 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 in 60 IP over 11 starts.
Since posting a tidy 2.58 ERA through his first 7 starts, Brubaker has yielded a 6.23 ERA in his last 4 outings.
LHP Jon Lester is the projected starter for the Nationals. He is 0-2 with a 4.19 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9 in 38 2/3 IP over 8 starts.
Lester issued a season-high 4 walks in his last outing, a 3 2/3-inning affair Tuesday against the Rays. His 3.7 walks per nine this season is his highest mark since 2007.
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Pirates at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:33 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nationals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates -1.5 (+155) | Nationals +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Nationals 5, Pirates 4
Money line (ML)
The Pirates have been swept in two straight series and are just 5-16 over their last 21 games. The Nationals are coming off a weekend split against the Giants; they are 6-6 in their last dozen games.
Both teams have struggled in hitting the baseball with any authority of late. For the season. Washington ranks 28th in scoring with 3.76 runs per game; Pittsburgh ranks 30th, scoring just 3.48.
There are too many cross signals to put this game in any sort of high-confidence-wager category, but the NATIONALS (-115) are a “lean”. The way the Nats have sequenced their base runners and their batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations suggest an upside of perhaps 4.20-to-4.25 RPG. Statcast quality of contact metrics back up that analysis.
Still, Brubaker is the more likable starter here. However, Pittsburgh does struggle mightily against lefties (.638 OPS), and Lester has held current Bucs bats to a .699 OPS and .096 isolated power in past meetings. Add in an advantage for the Nats bullpen over their counterparts from the Steel City.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the more juice-laden run line figures.
Over/Under (O/U)
Tag this game with enough double-digit probability to make for value on the OVER 8.5 (-120). A breeze out to left-center is in the forecast, and both bullpens could use a day off which may show in the latter innings.
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