The New York Yankees (33-30) and Philadelphia Phillies (30-31) play the front half of an abbreviated two-game weekend series Saturday. The contest at Citizens Bank Park is slated for a 4:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Jameson Taillon is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees. He is 1-4 with a 5.09 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 in 53 IP over 11 starts.
Albeit in a small 16 2/3-inning sample, Taillon has a 9.18 ERA on the road. Current Phillies batters own a .912 OPS against him.
RHP Vince Velasquez is the projected starter for the Phillies. He is 2-1 with a 4.33 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, and 5.4 BB/9 in 43 2/3 IP over 8 starts and 4 relief appearances this season.
The veteran righty posted a 1.11 ERA in 24 1/3 frames from May 3-25, but he’s allowed 9 ER in 7 IP in two starts since then.
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Yankees at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:04 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+125) | Phillies +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Yankees 5, Phillies 3
Money line (ML)
The Yanks have scored just 3.89 runs per game, which ranks 24th in MLB, but they head into this contest having scored five or more runs in four straight games.
The Phillies are 4-2 on their current home stand and are 19-12 at Citizens Bank Park on the year.
Both clubs have disappointed offensively, but the Yankees have some growth potential baked into their analytics. Statcast quality-of-contact numbers say better things about the Yankee attack than does the team’s 3.89 RPG figure.
PASS on the money line and look to leverage a better price in the marketplace with the New York run line tag.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Taillon has experienced some control problems of late, but he has a nice strikeout history against Philadelphia batters and appears to be getting more proficient at turning his four-seamer into infield pop-ups. He’s also backed by the better bullpen in this matchup.
Velasquez has seen recent slips in command and is up against a New York nine which banged out 7.3 RPG on a .989 OPS in three games at Minnesota.
BACK THE YANKEES -1.5 (+125).
Over/Under (O/U)
The lean here is small but it’s on the UNDER 9 (-110). This matchup sets up a lot of right-vs.-right strikeouts and Taillon is a decent play candidate in general. Add in the run-scoring environment of Major League Baseball in 2021, and beating a -120 on 9 runs has some value.
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