The Seattle Mariners (21-24) play the San Diego Padres (28-17) Saturday in Game 2 of their three-game set in Petco Park at 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego won its eighth consecutive Friday by drubbing Seattle in the first game of this series 16-1.
The Padres’ two through five hitters (RF Jurickson Profar, 2B Jake Cronenworth, SS Fernando Tatis Jr. and 1B Eric Hosmer) hit a combined 10-for-19 with two home runs and 12 RBIs.
Season series: Padres 1-0.
LHP Justus Sheffield gets his eighth start for the Mariners. Sheffield is 3-3 with a 4.62 ERA (39 IP, 20 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 7-3, in 6 IP with 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 2 K last Saturday vs. the Cleveland Indians.
- Career vs. the Padres: 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 2 BB and 5 K in one start (last season).
LHP Ryan Weathers is on the mound for the Padres. Weathers is 2-1 with a 1.37 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.76 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 across four starts and five bullpen appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 0 K in San Diego’s 5-3 win vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday.
- Career vs. the Mariners: No appearances.
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Mariners at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mariners +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Padres -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-125) | Padres -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Padres 8, Mariners 1
Money line (ML)
PASS because San Diego’s lineup has struggled vs. left-handed pitching thus far, but mainly the Padres (-200) is too expensive for an outright win.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the PADRES -1.5 (+105) for 1 unit because Friday’s 16-run outburst vs. the Mariners +1.5 (-125) could be a sign of things to come for San Diego’s lineup and the Padres own a sizable pitching advantage.
For instance, San Diego’s starter is a former No. 7 overall pick of the 2018 MLB draft and Weathers is expected to be on a pitch limit but could hand the ball off to RHP Dinelson Lamet who has got “top of the rotation” stuff.
Also, the Padres, on paper, have one of the best lineups in baseball, staggers hitters with different batting stances and can light up Sheffield who grades in the 30th percentile or lower in several advanced pitching metrics.
On top of that, San Diego’s bullpen is top-5 in the league across several advanced pitching categories, and Seattle’s lineup has the second-worst WAR in the majors.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS even though San Diego’s lineup is set up for success because it still has to prove it can hit left-handed pitching, and the presumed “sharp” money in the market is on the Under whereas the public is on the Over. I don’t have a feel either way.
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