The Chicago Cubs (22-21) start a three-game set with the St. Louis Cardinals (25-18) Friday at Busch Stadium with an 8:15 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago took three of four against the Washington Nationals Monday-Thursday but is just 5-5 in the last 10 games.
St. Louis won both of a two-game series vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates entering this series and has won six of the last 10 games.
RHP Kyle Hendricks is on the mound for the Cubs. Hendricks is 3-4 with a 5.27 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 across eight starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-1, in 8 IP with 1 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 8 K at the Detroit Tigers Sunday.
- Career vs. the Cardinals: 9-3 with a 2.88 ERA (128 IP, 41 ER), 1.06 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 over 20 starts.
- Career at St. Louis’ ballpark: 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.07 WHIP and 7.8 K/9 across eight starts.
- Vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 238 at-bats with a .227/.278/.353 slash line, 48/13 K/BB, 5 HR and 15 RBIs.
RHP Carlos Martínez is the projected starter for the Cardinals. Martínez is 3-4 with a 4.35 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 20 ER) 1.16 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 4.8 K/9 over seven starts.
- Last outing: Win, 9-8, in 5 IP with 5 ER, 6 H, 5 BB and 2 K vs. the Colorado Rockies May 8.
- Career vs. the Cubs: 4-5 with a 4.69 ERA (111 1/3 IP, 58 ER), 1.46 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 across 16 starts and 20 relief appearances.
- Vs. Cubs on the current roster: 222 at-bats with a .225/.311/.360 slash line, 63/25 K/BB, 7 HR and 26 RBIs.
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Cubs at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cubs -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cubs -1.5 (+125) | Cardinals +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Cubs 4, Cardinals 3
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the CUBS (-125) for a half unit because Chicago has a slight edge in the starting pitching matchup, hitting vs. right-handed pitching and there’s “reverse line movement” in Chicago’s direction.
For instance, both starters have spent several seasons with their teams and pitching in this Cubs-Cardinals generation-old rivalry.
However, Hendricks’ basic numbers and advanced pitching numbers are slightly better than Martinez’s vs. these respective lineups.
Also, I think Hendricks will start to pitch closer to his career norm because his exit velocity and hard-hit rates are still below the MLB average, but he has a .341 BAbip (.298 BAbip is league average).
Finally, according to Pregame.com, nearly 75% of the money wagered has been on the Cardinals yet the bookmakers are making the Cubs more expensive. It’s a red flag when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because none of the run line prices, either for the full game or First 5 Innings, are enticing enough to sprinkle some cash on.
Hendricks hasn’t put back-to-back quality starts together once this whole season, and the Cubs have played in 16 one-run games already.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for a half unit as a fade of a market that has 91% of the money on the Over, according to Pregame.com.
The Cubs-Cardinals total opened at 7.5 and has been steamed up a run, but the pitchers’ familiarity with their opponents and the Under going 5-0-1 in their last six meetings also add to the “lean”.
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