In a rematch of a 2020 NL Wild Card series, the St. Louis Cardinals (23-15) and San Diego Padres (21-17) open a three-game set Friday at Petco Park. First pitch is slated for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
During a mid-week series in which the Padres took 2 of 3 at the Colorado Rockies, San Diego lost 5 position players due to COVID-19 issues. Star SS Fernando Tatis Jr. and RF Wil Myers tested positive and were placed on the injured list, while 1B Eric Hosmer and utility players Jurickson Profar and Jorge Mateo also landed on the IL due to contact-tracing protocols.
None of the five are expected to play in this first regular-season meeting between the two NL contenders. The Padres won last year’s best-of-3 Wild Card Series by winning the final two games after dropping the opener.
The Padres had the day off Thursday, while the Cardinals shut out the Milwaukee Brewers 2-0 to take 2 of 3 to start their current 6-game road trip.
RHP Johan Oviedo is Friday’s projected starter for St. Louis. The Cuban native is 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance. Oviedo pitched Sunday for Class AAA Memphis and yielded 4 ER over 2 2/3 IP. This will be the first time he faces the Padres in his young career.
- Last MLB outing: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 2 K in the Cardinals’ 7-2 home loss to the New York Mets May 5.
- 2021 as starter: 0-1, 7.00 ERA (9 IP, 7 ER), 8 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 2 outings.
RHP Joe Musgrove is expected to start for the Friars. He is 2-4 with a 3.00 ERA (39 IP, 13 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 7 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 7 K in the Padres’ 7-1 defeat at the San Francisco Giants Saturday.
- Career vs. Cardinals: 1-7, 5.92 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 9 starts.
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Cardinals at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-145) | Padres -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Cardinals 5, Padres 4
Money line (ML)
ST. LOUIS (+150), which has won 5 of its last 6 games, is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. Granted, the Cardinals will be throwing an inexperienced starting pitcher, but the value is there since the Padres are without Tatis, Myers and Hosmer.
Plus, since Musgrove tossed the Padres’ first no-hitter in franchise history – in his second start of the season April 9 to improve to 2-0 – he is 0-4 with a 4.88 ERA (24 IP, 13 ER) in 5 starts.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS. The Cardinals have the majors’ second-best ATS record, but I have no interest in laying the -145 juice on St. Louis +1.5.
The alternate line of -1.5 (+260) is tempting but AVOID with Oviedo getting the start.
ATS records: Cardinals 24-14 | Padres 20-18
Over/Under (O/U)
Back OVER 7 (-105) to win a QUARTER UNIT because neither starting pitcher is worthy of an Under play. PASS if the line climbs above 7.
O/U records: Cardinals 16-18-3 | Padres 16-22
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| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| 2021 MLB | 38-40-2 | 10-12-1 | -5.62 |
| 2020 MLB | 80-59-1 | 39-21 | +24.79 |
| 2021 (all sports) | 141-125-3 | 59-53-1 | +7.93 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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