The Milwaukee Brewers (17-16) clash with the Miami Marlins (15-16) for the second game of their three-game set at loadDepot Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Miami beat the Brewers 6-1 yesterday with Marlins 2B Isan Diaz going 2-for-3 with a home run and 4 RBIs being the standout.
Season series: Marlins 3-1.
RHP Adrian Houser is getting the nod for the Brewers. Houser is 2-3 with a 3.52 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 across 6 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-3, in 6 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 2 K at the Philadelphia Phillies Monday.
- Career vs. the Marlins: 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.92 WHIP and 14.5 K/9 in 1 start and 1 relief appearance.
LHP Daniel Castano is the projected starter for the Marlins. Castano is 0-1 with a 4.73 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 3.4 K/9 across 3 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-4, in 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K at the Brewers on April 28. This was Castano’s only career start vs. Milwaukee.
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Brewers at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Marlins 5, Brewers 2
Money line (ML)
I’m on the MARLINS (-105) for 1 unit because they are playing better than their record indicates the Brewers (-115) are struggling, and Miami has a decent pitching edge over Milwaukee.
The Brewers have lost six straight after taking three of four from the Los Angeles Dodgers last weekend.
Including yesterday’s win, the Marlins have won four in a row, sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks before this series. Miami also took two of three at Milwaukee from April 26-28.
Milwaukee is fifth in luck factor and has two more wins than it should whereas Miami has the second-worst luck factor and has three fewer wins than it should.
In fact, the Marlins have a plus-24 run differential on the season and are the only NL East team to have a plus-run differential.
Also, Houser’s favorite pitch in his arsenal is the sinker and quite a few Marlins batters hit the sinker well including their cleanup hitter LF Cory Dickerson.
According to Statcast, Dickerson has a .571 batting average, .714 slugging percentage and 66.7% hard-hit rate vs. the sinker. In fact, half of Miami’s lineup has a plus-run value against the sinker.
Furthermore, Statcast grades Houser below the 30th percentile in K%, whiff%, exit velocity, expected wOBA and hard-hit rate.
Finally, Miami’s bullpen has performed much better than Milwaukee’s to this point. The Marlins relievers have a better SIERA, xFIP, K-BB% and WHIP.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the MARLINS -1.5 (+195) alternate run line for a quarter unit if at all because of the nearly 2-to-1 payout and Miami’s plus-run differential.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8 (-115) because Castano pitches much better in Miami than on the road, and the Under is 5-0-1 in the Marlins’ last six games as a home underdog.
Lastly, Miami’s lineup is bad and Milwaukee’s is even worse. The Brewers’ hitters have a lower wOBA, wRC+ and WAR.
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