The Chicago White Sox (16-13) meet the AL Central rival Kansas City Royals (16-14) Friday at Kauffman Stadium for the first game of a three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the White Sox vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago has alternated between winning and losing its past six games and is 6-4 in its previous 10 games while Kansas City has lost five straight and is 3-7 over its last 10.
The season series is tied 1-1 but the White Sox owned the Royals in 2020 by going 9-1 in their head-to-head meetings.
LHP Carlos Rodón gets the start for the White Sox. He is 4-0 with an 0.72 ERA (25 IP, 2 ER), 0.64 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 13.0 K/9 over 4 starts.
- Last outing: Win in 6 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 12 K vs. the Detroit Tigers last Thursday.
- Career vs. Royals: 2-3 with a 3.69 ERA (39 IP, 16 ER), 1.49 WHIP and 8.8 K/9 over 7 starts.
RHP Brad Keller is the projected starter for the Royals. He is 2-3 with an 8.06 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 2.15 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 across 6 starts.
- Last outing: Loss in 4 1/3 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K at the Minnesota Twins Sunday.
- Career vs. White Sox: 4-4 with a 3.62 ERA (59 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.39 WHIP and 7.2 K/9 in 10 starts and 3 relief appearances.
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White Sox at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: White Sox -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Royals +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: White Sox -1.5 (+100) | Royals +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
White Sox 5, Royals 2
Money line (ML)
PASS because I’m confident enough taking Chicago in this spot that I’ll be greedy and not eat the vig for the White Sox (-160).
It’s not out of my price range and I’d entertain including the White Sox’s money line in a parlay, but I’d rather load up on Chicago’s run line
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
GIMME the WHITE SOX -1.5 (+100) for 1 unit because of their massive edge in the starting pitching matchup and Chicago’s second-best 18-10 run line record as a road favorite since the beginning of last season.
Rodón has been filthy this year and is more effective on six or more days rest. Statcast grades Rodón in the 90-plus percentile in K%, whiff%, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA.
Also, Rodón has a lower ERA, WHIP and opponent’s slash line when pitching on six or more days rest compared to his other rest splits.
Conversely, Keller has been dreadful this season and is far less effective on four days of rest.
Statcast grades Keller in the single-digit percentile in K%, expected wOBA and expected slugging percentage, and the 35th percentile in hard-hit rate.
And, on four days of rest, Keller’s winning percentage, WHIP and ERA are the worst compared to his other rest splits.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because Rodón has been better than Keller this season but Keller’s numbers vs. the White Sox are more impressive than Rodón’s against the Royals.
Also, Chicago’s lineup is predictably good but is missing some big bats and Kansas City’s lineup is surprisingly average.
The bottom line is I don’t have a good enough handicap on this total and these teams have a combined 5-5 O/U record this season when these two starters are on the mound.
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