Nobody ran more 12 personnel looks in 2020 than Arthur Smith did as offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans. Smith, who took over as the new head coach of the Atlanta Falcons a few months ago, ran the 12 personnel 15 percent more than the league average. Furthermore, Smith’s offense was in 11 personnel 25 percent less than the league average.
Going back to 2018, former Falcons offensive coordinators Dirk Koetter (2019-2020) and Steve Sarkisian (2017-2018) have utilized the 11 personnel 61 percent of the time. That’s right on par with the league average, which has been steadily increasing each year over the past decade.
For the ones who don’t understand the numerical description, here is a quick run down. The “12” personnel grouping means that there is one running back to two tight ends. Thus, an “11” personnel signals one running back and one tight end, while “21” personnel means there is only one tight end to two running backs. So, when someone uses “00” personnel, that signals there being five wide receivers due to process of elimination.
As Smith takes over in Atlanta, he brings an entirely new offensive makeup that should be fairly similar to what he ran in Tennessee. Here is a look at the three most prevalent personnel groupings used by the Falcons and Titans during the 2020 season.
| 2020 “11” Personnel | |||||
| Total % | % of All Run | Success Rate | % of All Pass | Success Rate | |
| Falcons | 61 % | 45 % | 49 % | 71 % | 47 % |
| Titans | 38 % | 29 % | 58 % | 48 % | 48 % |
| 2020 “12” Personnel | |||||
| Total % | % of All Run | Success Rate | % of All Pass | Success Rate | |
| Falcons | 16 % | 18 % | 48 % | 14 % | 58 % |
| Titans | 35 % | 39 % | 52 % | 31 % | 54 % |
| 2020 “21” Personnel | |||||
| Total % | % of All Run | Success Rate | % of All Pass | Success Rate | |
| Falcons | 12 % | 20 % | 43 % | 8 % | 46 % |
| Titans | 10 % | 14 % | 62 % | 7 % | 44 % |
The biggest takeaway here is how successful the Titans were at running the football with only one tight end on the field. As fo the Falcons, they averaged one yard less per carry in 11 personnel than the Titans, and 1.6 yards per carry less in 21 personnel.
Some may point to Derrick Henry as the main difference here, and while Henry has played a large role in the development of Tennessee’s offense, he didn’t become the player we know at the NFL level until Smith took over as the offensive coordinator in 2019.
Upon’s Smith’s arrival, one immediate area of improvement was in the success rate of running plays from the 11 and 12 personnel groups. Tennessee had a 10 percent increase in the success rate of plays called out of the 12 personnel, and an eight percent increase from the 11 personnel on runs in 2019 compared to 2018. In these three main personnel sets, the Falcons’ average success rate (46 percent) is more than 10 percent less than the Titans’ rate (57 percent) when running the football.
Transitioning to the passing game, when using 11 personnel, quarterback Matt Ryan had a passer rating of 90.2 and a 2-to-1.2 touchdown-to-interception ratio on his 470 drop backs. This is much lower than Ryan Tannehill’s 104.2 passer rating and 5-to-1.3 touchdown-to-interception ratio on just 252 drop backs.
Another set the Falcons will run is the 13 personnel group. In fact, this personnel set could be used a lot in 2021 in order to get both Kyle Pitts and Hayden Hurst on the field together. Not only does this allow for two pass-catching tight ends, but also allows for Smith to bring in a specific blocking tight end, such as recently acquired veteran Lee Smith.
Tight ends coach Justin Peelle talking with the media says both Hayden Hurst and Kyle Pitts will be in the field at the same time. Peelle says Hurst has really improved since he evaluated him coming out of the draft #Falcons
— Kelsey Conway (@FalconsKelsey) May 5, 2021
Only one team (Cleveland) used the 13 personnel grouping more than Tennessee in 2020. The Titans ran this look on 11 percent of their running plays and seven percent of passing plays. For reference, Atlanta used this set less than five percent overall in 2020.
To sum everything up, the Falcons should see a more balanced offensive attack in 2021. Not only that, but they should become more successful when running the ball. Free-agent running back Mike Davis will go into the season as the presumptive starter and hopefully bring some of that bowling ball mentality that Henry brought when Smith was his play-caller.
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