Predicting trades in the NFL draft can be difficult. The easiest ones are the teams that need one of the top QB’s but who are too low in the first round to expect one of them to reach them. But the Raiders aren’t really in a position where jumping up into the top ten for a QB makes sense. With Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota in the fold, they don’t need to get jumpy for a QB.
The main reason it’s so hard to predict trades, in general, is because it factors in several variables.
First of all, who is on the board. Will there be a player there who was expected to go much higher, and thus having the Raiders’ phone ringing?
Second of all, is there a player on the board the Raiders can’t pass up?
Third, what other trades will be made that could shake things up? For example, will a team trade up ahead of the Raiders and expectedly take the player they thought was going to be on the board when they picked? Suddenly a trade becomes possible where it didn’t before
Lastly, which teams will be calling, if at all? In 2019, the Raiders liked Clelin Ferrell but wanted to move down from pick number four before taking him. According to Mike Mayock, the phones weren’t ringing, so they made the pick at four because he was their guy.
For these reasons, we are going to look at possible trades using four other factors: players who fit Raiders’ needs per my Raiders Draft Radar series, The Athletic consensus big board, Grinding the Mocks expected draft position, and the trade value chart. From that, we will come up with a few possible trades that could make sense for the Raiders.
1. Raiders trade down from 17 to 22, take OT Teven Jenkins
Jenkins is the one player in this draft who I keep coming back to as the guy the Raiders would take at 17 and be fine with it. But, should they think they can risk it — in part due to the depth at the position — and drop down before taking him, that could make sense.
Jenkins is ranked 21 on the consensus big board and 23 on the draft position ranking. This is the trade that would put them in that range.
Raiders receive pick 22 and pick 85 from Titans
2. Raiders trade down from 17 to 28, take FS Trevon Moehrig
After offensive tackle, safety is the Raiders’ biggest need. Moehrig is not just the best in this draft, but his skill set perfectly fits what the Raiders need. His big board ranking is 23 while his expected draft position is 29. What if, by chance, one of the draft’s top QBs was still on the board when the Raiders pick at 17? That would be intriguing for the Saints at 28 and the jump is worth a second-rounder.
Raiders receive pick 28 and 60 from Saints
3. Raiders trade up from 48 to 29, take S Trevon Moehrig
Trades down aren’t the only possibility here. Should the Raiders either stick at 17 or go with the first option and trade down for Jenkins, they could still make a move to jump back into the bottom of the first round for Moehrig. That’s a big jump though, so it won’t be cheap.
Packers receive picks 48, 80, and 162
4. Raiders trade up from 80 to 60, take OT Spencer Brown
Even at 48, the draft depth at tackle is such that the Raiders could move down and get a quality tackle. While Brown is ranked 88 on the consensus big board, his expected draft position is 61. Brown is just the type of mid-round guy Tom Cable loves.
Cable has been on the Raiders’ coaching staff when they took Jared Veldheer in the third round out of Hillsdale College and Brandon Parker out of North Carolina A&T. Both 6-8 just like Brown who also hails from a small school in Northern Iowa. Parker had the Raiders literally trade up in the third round to get him.
Saints receive picks 80, 121, 167
5. Raiders trade up from 79 to 65, take nickel cornerback
Lest we forget one of the holes that opened up this offseason was nickel cornerback due to the release of LaMarcus Joyner. Molden and Robinson are arguably the top two top nickel cornerbacks in this draft. Both are seen as mid to late-second-round picks. The way I figure, if either of them slips out of round two, the Raiders could think seriously about jumping up to get one of them.
Jaguars receive picks 79, 162, and 167
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