The St. Louis Cardinals (11-11) host the Philadelphia Phillies (11-11) in Game 2 of their four-game series at Busch Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philadelphia won Game 1 of this series 2-1 thanks to a gem thrown by RHP Zack Wheeler. He surrendered just 1 hit and 1 earned run with 3 walks and 9 strikeouts.
Season series: Phillies lead 3-1.
RHP Zach Eflin gets his fifth start of the season for the Phillies Tuesday. He is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA (26 IP, 8 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 0.7 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 this season.
- Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 3 K in Philadelphia’s 6-5 win over the San Francisco Giants Wednesday.
- Career vs. the Cardinals: 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 across 2 starts.
RHP Carlos Martinez gets the start for the Cardinals. Martinez is 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA (21 IP, 14 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 through 4 starts.
- Last outing: Loss in 6 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 3 K in St. Louis’ 1-0 loss at the Washington Nationals.
- Career vs. the Phillies: 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA (35 IP, 15 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 over 5 starts and 4 relief appearances.
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Phillies at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at noon ET.
- Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Cardinals +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -118 | U: -105)
Prediction
Cardinals 6, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
For me, this is a “trap spot” for the Phillies who definitely have an edge in the starting pitching matchup and, in fact, these two pitchers met April 16 in a game Philadelphia won 9-2.
Martinez leads MLB in losses and Eflin has a sub-3.00 ERA with the third-best walk rate of all starters with a minimum of 20 innings pitched.
However, the market has steamed St. Louis’ money line up to -110 after this game opened with the Cardinals as slight home underdogs (-105). The reason is the expectation of Eflin’s regression back to the mean.
He has been lights out in high leverage situations with opposing hitters slashing .083/.154/.167 with just one hit and a .100 BABIP through 14 plate appearances.
Eflin had a quality start in allowing just 2 earned runs across 7 innings in his first start against the Cardinals, but he had a slightly flukey 87% left on-base percentage and St. Louis hitters had a 55% hard-hit rate.
BET CARDINALS (-110) for 1 unit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Cardinals +1.5 (-175) are too expensive and I’m not confident enough in St. Louis with Martinez on the rubber to take a shot at the alternate run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-118) for a quarter unit since the weather forecast predicts nearly 15 mph winds out to left-center and if the Cardinals can chase Eflin early they’ll get to face a Phillies bullpen with the second-worst ERA in MLB.
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