The Miami Heat (28-26) play their second of a back-to-back Wednesday against the Denver Nuggets (34-20) at Ball Arena. Below, we analyze the Heat-Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Miami had its two-game winning streak snapped last night with a 106-86 blowout loss at the Phoenix Suns as 3.5-point road underdogs.
Prior to last night’s loss, the Heat won six of their previous seven games and was 5-2 against the spread in those contests.
Denver has lost two straight to the Boston Celtics Sunday and the Golden State Warriors Monday following an eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS over that span).
The Nuggets waxed the Heat 109-82 earlier this season, but Miami was without SF Jimmy Butler and PG Goran Dragic, both of whom could miss tonight’s game.
Heat at Nuggets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat +195 (bet $100 to win $195) | Nuggets -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Heat +6 (-110) | Nuggets -6 (-110)
- Over/Under: 209.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Heat at Nuggets: Key injuries
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
- PG Goran Dragic (rest) out
Nuggets
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
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Heat at Nuggets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Nuggets 112, Heat 101
Money line (ML)
PASS since Denver is the right side but Nuggets (-250) is too steep of a price for a team that has dropped two straight, lost their second-leading scorer for the season and playing the defending Eastern Conference champions.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Denver’s recent form is concerning, especially after losing Murray to a season-ending knee injury Monday against the Warriors, but if Butler missing tonight’s game for the Heat, the NUGGETS -6 (-110) becomes an auto-play.
Butler has the highest on-off net rating for the Heat and is the team’s leading scorer and assist man.
Also, the “sharp” side of the market agrees with me as the bets placed are equal on both sides, but Denver has a majority of the money wagered, according to Pregame.com.
Furthermore, the Nuggets are 6-4 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning record while the Heat are just 5-6 ATS on the road vs. winning teams.
TAKE the NUGGETS -6 (-110) for 1 unit unless Butler plays, otherwise, it’s a half-unit play at the adjusted spread.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 209.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit if at all because we are getting the worst of the number.
The Heat-Nuggets total opened at 214 before the market barreled into the Under and steamed it down.
Plus we have to see what Denver’s offense is going to look like without Murray in the lineup. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Murray is in the 92nd percentile of point guards in on-off team offensive efficiency.
Finally, both teams play at a snail’s pace (Denver has the second-slowest pace and Miami has the third-slowest), which lends itself well to a lower scoring contest.
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