The 2021 NFL draft is just two weeks away and teams across the league are putting their boards together and already discussing potential trades. This is the time of year when parameters are set on trades in case a player falls or a team wants to move up in a draft.
Today, we are taking a look at approximately how much it would cost the Raiders to move up into the top-10 picks. But before we do that, we need to discuss who might be worthy of trading up for in this year’s class.
The obvious answer is Penei Sewell, the Oregon left tackle. He is the consensus top-offensive linemen in this year’s class and projects as a future All-Pro. There is also Patrick Surtain II, a three-year starter at Alabama at cornerback. He might be the best defensive player in the class and would be a perfect fit in Gus Bradley’s defense.
And the final name we have to mention is Kyle Pitts from Florida. Do the Raiders need a tight end? Absolutely not. But Pitts is a generational talent and is the best pass catcher in the class.
So what would it take for the Raiders to move inside the top-10 picks? It’s first worth mentioning that there are only two realistic landing spots for the Raiders; the Cowboys at No. 10 and the Panthers at No. 8. The Broncos own the 9th pick in this year’s class and it seems unlikely they would trade inside the division. So here is what it would cost to acquire these two picks.
TRADE TO NO. 10 – DALLAS COWBOYS
According to the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, the No. 10 pick is worth 1,300 points. The No. 17 pick (Raiders) is worth 950 points, so the Raiders would need to make up around 350 points in this trade. Giving up picks No. 17 and No. 48 (1,370) would be an overpay, but the Cowboys may be willing to throw back a late Day 3 pick to make the trade work.
If the Raiders didn’t want to give up this year’s second-round pick, they could offer their first-round choice in 2022 and it would be valued around the same amount. However, that feels a bit too costly to go up for a non-quarterback.
Assuming the Raiders saw someone they loved fall to them at No. 10, I would expect a trade of No. 10 + No. 115 (1,364) for No. 17 and No. 48 (1,370) to ultimately get it done.
TRADE TO NO. 8 – CAROLINA PANTHERS
If the Raiders want to be really aggressive going after Sewell or Surtain, No. 8 might be the better spot to go up to in this draft. Pick No. 8 is worth 1,400 points and we’ve already established that picks No. 17 and No. 48 equal 1,370 points.
But with the Panthers trading away a 2022 second-round pick for Sam Darnold, they might be more open to moving back and gaining draft capital for next year. Would a trade package of No. 17, No. 79 and a 2022 second-round pick (valued 1,400 points) be something the Panthers would consider?
This would allow the Raiders to keep No. 48, which they would likely use for defense and still have an assortment of picks left in this year’s draft and next years. For Carolina, they would recoup some value for the trade of Darnold and still could get a quality defender or offensive linemen at No. 17.
If the Raiders aren’t looking to trade future picks, a trade of No. 17, No. 48 and No. 162 (1,405 points) for No. 8 (1,400 points) seems fair.
With the Raiders having four picks inside the top-100 selections, look for them to be aggressive moving up in this year’s draft. And given their need on the offensive line, don’t be surprised if they are highly aggressive in the first round.
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