The Chicago Cubs (3-3) and Pittsburgh Pirates (1-5) open a three-game series at PNC Park with a 1:35 p.m. ET tilt Thursday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Jake Arrieta is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. Last year with the Philadelphia Phillies, Arrieta went 4-4 with a 5.08 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 44 1/3 IP over nine starts. The veteran righty opened his 2020 season with a win over these Pirates while allowing just one run across 6 IP.
LHP Tyler Anderson is the projected starter for the Pirates. With the San Francisco Giants in 2020, he went 4-3 with a 4.37 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, and 3.8 BB/9 in 59 2/3 IP over 11 starts and two relief appearances. Anderson faced the Cubs at Wrigley Field Saturday; he allowed 3 ER on 5 hits and a pair of walks over 5 frames.
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Cubs at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cubs -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cubs -1.5 (+110) | Pirates +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Cubs 4, Pirates 3
Money line (ML)
The Cubs figure to struggle against southpaws after logging an anemic .619 OPS against lefties in 2020.
Arrieta — who didn’t miss many bats while being dinged by some hard contact in his season debut — is a right-hander who struggles more than most against batters of the opposite hand (lefty bats cracked him for a .873 OPS in 2020 and a .931 figure in 2019).
Anderson registered a swinging-strike rate of 24.2% in his first start. The Pirates lefty is a fly-ball type who will benefit from a pitcher’s breeze which is in the Steel City forecast for Thursday afternoon.
A tag closer to +130 would be appreciated, but PITTSBURGH (+120) is a workable play.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
This game has some Under lean. There is some merit to a PIRATES +1.5 (-135) wager but perhaps only as an undercard insurance play with the higher-profit action on top.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both teams come in struggling on offense (Pittsburgh .638 OPS, Chicago .581 OPS) and the Under has gone 5-1 in the Cubs’ first six games.
The better parts of both bullpens are well-rested coming into this Thursday matinee which will be followed by an off day. With that off-day pending and with both sides having looked at these starters just last week, figure this one being in the hands of both bullpens early. Both relief units have been good in the early going.
On a dry afternoon with an inward wind of double-digit (miles per hour) strength, PEG SOME VALUE ON THE UNDER 8.5 (-115).
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