Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks odds, picks and prediction

The Memphis Grizzlies (25-23) drop by State Farm Arena Wednesday for an 8 p.m. ET game against the Atlanta Hawks (27-24). Below, we analyze the Grizzlies-Hawks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Memphis has won three straight and four of its past five games and is 9-1 against the spread in the last 10. The Grizzlies’ past two wins were road upsets at the Philadelphia 76ers Sunday and the Miami Heat Tuesday.

Atlanta has it rolling, too. The Hawks have won four in a row and five of their past seven (5-2 against the spread). However, four of the Hawks’ last five wins have come against two banged-up teams—the New Orleans Pelicans and Golden State Warriors.

The Hawks beat the Grizzlies earlier this season 122-112 as 2.5-point road underdogs, but Memphis won and covered both meetings last season.

Grizzlies at Hawks: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:22 p.m. ET.

Money line: Grizzlies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Hawks -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Grizzlies +2 (-110) | Hawks -2 (-110)
Over/Under: 225.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Grizzlies at Hawks: Key injuries

Grizzlies

PF Brandon Clarke (calf) out
PG De’Anthony Melton (leg) out
SF Justise Winslow (thigh) out
PF Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) out

Hawks

PF John Collins (ankle) out
PF Danilo Gallinari (ankle) questionable
SF De’Andre Hunter (knee) out
SG Cam Reddish (Achilles) out

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Grizzlies at Hawks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Grizzlies 118, Hawks 112

Money line (ML)

Both teams crash the glass, get easy putbacks and second-chance points. Memphis is first in second-chance points per game and Atlanta is fourth. The Grizzlies are third in second-chance points allowed per game whereas the Hawks are 18th.

Memphis C Jonas Valančiūnas’ teams are 6-3 when playing Atlanta C Clint Capela’s teams with Valančiūnas outscoring and outrebounding Capela in those games.

“LEAN” to the GRIZZLIES (+110) for a quarter unit.

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Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET GRIZZLIES +2 (-110) heavier than or instead of Memphis’s money line.

The Grizzlies are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. Also, Memphis has the highest cover rate vs. non-conference opponents (14-5 ATS).

Over/Under (O/U)

There are a whole bunch of Under-friendly trends keeping this total low in my opinion, providing a little value for the OVER 225.5 (-110).

The previous three Grizzlies-Hawks games played to the Under, but the totals were 240.5, 235 and 238.5 earlier this season.

Bookmakers shaving 14 points off the total, even with Atlanta’s injury concerns, is too much.

The Hawks have scored 123 or more points in three of their last four games and the Grizzlies have scored 116 or more in four of five.

Bet OVER 225.5 (-110) for a half unit.

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