The Miami Heat (24-24) play the second of a back-to-back when they host the Golden State Warriors (23-24) Thursday at American Airlines Arena. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat-Warriors odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Golden State snapped its four-game losing streak with a 116-102 win over the Chicago Bulls at home Monday in Stephen Curry’s first game back after being sidelined with an injured tailbone the previous five contests.
Miami won a second straight—following a six-game losing skid—by beating the Indiana Pacers last night 92-87 as 1.5-point road favorites, avenging back-to-back losses to Indiana March 19 and 21.
The Warriors defeated the Heat 120-112 in overtime at home Feb. 17, without three frontcourt players including defensive anchor Draymond Green, No. 2 overall pick C James Wiseman and C Kevon Looney.
Warriors at Heat: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Warriors +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Heat -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Warriors +2.5 (-110) | Heat -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 217.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Warriors at Heat: Key injuries
Warriors
- PF Eric Paschall (wrist) out
Heat
- SG Victor Oladipo (illness) probable
- PG Kendrick Nunn (ankle) questionable
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Warriors at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Heat 111, Warriors 103
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to HEAT (-140) because it’s at the fringe of a money line price point I’d dip into the wallet for, and I wouldn’t hate parlaying Miami outright with another favorite for a plus-money payout.
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Against the spread (ATS)
The reason the HEAT -2.5 (-110) lost to a Warriors team without any bigs in their first meeting this season was because the Heat didn’t lean into what it does best and played at Golden State’s tempo.
Miami only got to the free-throw line 12 times, which is more than 10 free-throw attempts per game less than its season average.
This is an easily correctable mistake, and I expect Miami head coach Erik Spolestra to make these adjustments especially because the Heat aren’t in the place they’d like to be and are jostling for playoff seeding.
The Heat are ninth in FTA/FG rate, and the Warriors have the 2nd-highest defensive FTA/FG rate in the Association. So Miami should be able to rack up easy points in this game.
BET HEAT -2.5 (-110) for 1.25 units.
Over/Under (O/U)
All the situational O/U trends point to this game going Under, and these teams have a combined 40-55 O/U record this year.
Also, the market is barreling into the Under, which has steamed this total down a 1.5 points from the opener, but I side with the market in this handicap.
It’s only a “LEAN”, but BET UNDER 217.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit – if at all.
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Also see:
- Bet Slippin’ Podcast: 2021 MLB American League Betting Preview
- Warriors’ James Wiseman lands at No. 7 in latest Rookie Wire power rankings (Warriors Wire)
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