The Denver Nuggets (25-16) host the New Orleans Pelicans (17-24) Sunday at Ball Arena for a 3 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Pelicans-Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
New Orleans just lost back-to-back games at the Portland Trail Blazers Tuesday and Thursday. The Pelicans covered the spread in the first meeting—a 125-124 loss as 2-point underdogs. The Pelicans are 3-5 straight up and 4-4 against the spread in March.
The Nuggets are 3-1 in their current five-game homestand, having won three straight games after dropping the first to the Dallas Mavericks March 13. Prior to this homestand, Denver swept a five-game road swing and is 8-1 straight and 6-3 ATS across its last nine games.
Denver beat New Orleans in the last of their three regular-season meetings last year. The Nuggets snapped a three-game losing skid and six-game non-cover streak against the Pelicans.
Pelicans at Nuggets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pelicans +195 (bet $100 to win $195) | Nuggets -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pelicans +6 (-110) | Nuggets -6 (-110)
- Over/Under: 234.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Pelicans at Nuggets: Key injuries
Pelicans
- PG Lonzo Ball (hip) questionable
- SG JJ Redick (heel) out
Nuggets
- SG Gary Harris (thigh) out
- SG Monte Morris (quadriceps) out
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Pelicans at Nuggets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Nuggets 120, Pelicans 111
Money line (ML)
PASS because Denver is the right side here, especially if Lonzo cannot play today, but it’s a bad return on investment to bet an NBA regular-season favorite as expensive as the Nuggets (-240).
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Against the spread (ATS)
The NUGGETS -6 (-110) are the play because MVP candidate C Nikola Jokic worked Pelicans C Steven Adams in their meetings last season when Adams played for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
In those three head-to-head games, Jokic averaged 30.0 points per game on 75.4% true shooting with 11.0 rebounds, 9.0 assists and a plus-34 net rating against Adams and the Thunder.
Also, Ball is trending toward not playing in this game, and him knocking down shots is very important to New Orleans’ offense.
If Lonzo isn’t out there, the Pelicans will have a tougher time spacing the floor and it’ll allow the Nuggets to pack the paint, making it tougher on PF Zion Williamson to score easy buckets.
Denver already has a good interior defense—10th in points in the paint allowed per game and second in opponent’s second-chance points per game—so the Nuggets have less perimeter shooting to worry about, and they can use extra bandwidth to slow down Zion.
BET NUGGETS -6 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
LEAN toward UNDER 234.5 (-115) for a half-unit because both teams play at a below-average tempo and Denver is second-to-last in pace of play.
Also, the Under has cashed in back-to-back Pelicans-Nuggets games and four of their last five meetings. The caveat is this is a strength-on-weakness matchup with Denver’s fifth-ranked effective shooting percentage going against New Orleans’ 29th-ranked defensive effective shooting percentage.
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