The Los Angeles Clippers (25-14) visit the New Orleans Pelicans (16-22) Sunday at Smoothie King Center for a 9 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Clippers-Pelicans odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Clippers at Pelicans: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Clippers -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Pelicans +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread/ATS: Clippers -5.5 (-110) | Pelicans +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Clippers at Pelicans: Key injuries
Clippers
- PG Patrick Beverley (knee) out
Pelicans
- SG J.J. Reddick (heel) out
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Clippers at Pelicans: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Clippers 122, Pelicans 114
Money line (ML)
PASS because LA is the right side in this one, but Clippers (-225) is far too expensive for an NBA regular-season favorite.
On the other hand, I’ll listen to a money line parlay with LA and the Philadelphia 76ers for a roughly plus-150-payout.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Both teams have the same win-loss and ATS records in the last six games (2-4 overall and ATS), but the CLIPPERS -5.5 (-110) are poised to go on a post-All-Star break tear.
LA crushed the Golden State Warriors 130-104 at home Thursday, and New Orleans beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 116-82 Friday. It’s obvious which win was more impressive.
It’s more of lean than a like because I prefer the total more than the sides in this game, but if you must, BET CLIPPERS -5.5 (-110) for a half-unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 232.5 (-110) is the best play in Clippers-Pelicans for a variety of reasons.
First, according to Pregame.com, nearly 80% of the money is on the Over, which has steamed this number down from the 236-point.
But, that feels more like a robotic/sharp play rather than anything basketball-related so I’m fine with fading the market in this spot.
Second, the absence of Clippers guard Patrick Beverley leaves LA’s defense vulnerable. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Pat Bev is in the 97th percentile of guards in terms of on-off rating for team defensive points per 100 possessions.
Third, the Pelicans attempt the 2nd-highest volume of shots at the rim while the Clippers are 20th in defensive field goal percentage of shots at the rim (CleaningTheGlass.com) and 22nd in paint points per game allowed.
Finally, LA shots an absurd, NBA-high 42% from 3-point land while New Orleans has the 3rd-worst defensive 3-point shooting percentage and allows the 3rd-most 3-point attempts per game.
Wait until closer to tip-off before wagering on this in case any of the All-Stars for either team sits out and to perhaps get a better price since the market is betting the Under.
Otherwise, BET OVER 232.5 (-110) for 1.25 units.
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Also see:
- Film Room: Breaking down the subtle brilliance of Lonzo Ball’s game (Lonzo Wire)
- Hoops Hype rumors: Clippers | Pelicans
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