The San Antonio Spurs (18-14) travel in-state Wednesday to play the Dallas Mavericks (18-16) at the American Airlines Center. The tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Spurs-Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
San Antonio had a nine-day COVID-related layoff followed by a 2-3 overall and ATS stretch heading into the NBA All-Star break. The Spurs are currently atop the Southwest Division, one game ahead of Dallas.
The Mavericks were on fire prior to the All-Star Game as winners of eight of their previous 10 games (5-5 ATS) and Luka Doncic‘s superstardom was the primary reason. Luka averaged 31.7 points on 51.9% shooting (46.5% from 3) with 7.6 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game in his last 10 games.
Dallas won and covered the first meeting with San Antonio 122-117 back on Jan. 22 and has beaten the Spurs in four of the last five games.
Spurs at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:11 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Spurs +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Mavericks -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Spurs +4.5 (-110) | Mavericks -4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 222.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Spurs at Mavericks: Key injuries
Spurs
- SF Devin Vassell (health and safety protocols) out
Mavericks
- None
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Spurs at Mavericks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Spurs 112, Mavericks 106
Money line (ML)
Slight lean on SPURS (+155) since I like San Antonio to cover the spread.
San Antonio PG Dejounte Murray sprained his ankle in the opening minutes of the first Spurs-Mavericks game earlier this season and it significantly affected San Antonio’s perimeter defense.
Murray’s absence also played a role in the Spurs only forcing five Mavs turnovers in that game since Murray is 5th in steals per game and 18th in defensive win shares in the Association.
Dallas needs Doncic to dominate for it to make a playoff push and Murray is good enough defensively to minimize Doncic’s damage.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET SPURS +4.5 (-110) heavier or instead of their money line.
This is a great spot for San Antonio, which is 6-1 ATS with a plus-6.2-point spread differential as a road dog, whereas the Mavs are 4-10 ATS with a minus-8.5-point spread differential as home favorites.
Furthermore, CleaningTheGlass.com grades the Spurs as the 5th-best defensive team in points per possession, which removes garbage time stats. Well, the Mavs are 5-8 overall with a minus-5.9-point spread differential vs. top-10 defenses.
Also, against bottom-10 defenses—the Mavs are 25th—the Spurs are 7-4 overall with the 7th-highest ATS margin (plus-2.9 points).
Over/Under (O/U)
The Under has cashed in six of the previous eight Spurs-Mavericks games and San Antonio matches up well with Dallas defensively.
Dallas is 12th in points per possession out of the half-court and San Antonio is 5th in defensive points per possession out of the half-court, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
This total is suspicious considering the last Spurs-Mavericks game had a 223-point total. It soared Over the total by 16 points and the previous four meetings were all projected to be higher scoring.
BET UNDER 222.5 (-110) for 1 unit.
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Also see:
- Bet Slippin’ Podcast: The Players Championship and NBA’s second half
- Hoops Hype rumors: Spurs | Mavericks
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