Former Texans defensive lineman J.J. Watt created a stir when he announced on Twitter that he would be joining the Arizona Cardinals, a move which was a bit surprising considering he wants to win a ring prior to the close of his career.
Watt isn’t the dominant force that he once was earlier in his career when he put together multiple 20-sack seasons, but he’s still a valuable player to have along the defensive line. And $23 million guaranteed over two years might be a bit much considering his current level of talent and production, but the Cardinals needed to upgrade their defensive front — especially against the run.
Last season, the Cardinals defense ranked 24th in opposing yards per carry (4.6), 16th in rushing success rate (41.1%), and 14th in expected points added per rush (-0.073). They didn’t have the worst run defense out there, but Watt should help them create more splash plays against the run.
As a defensive end, Watt can still play well against the run and has that trademark ability to swim around offensive tackles and knife into the backfield. Two of his 14 tackles for loss last year came on the same move against the Tennessee Titans in their Week 6 matchup.
This is where Watt has the clearest value for the Cardinals. Like always, he’s more a gambler and someone who will knife up the field instead of just sitting his gap. His explosive abilities have diminished a bit through all the injuries he’s incurred, but not to the point where he’s a complete sieve against the run.
In the Cardinals defense, he can start immediately as a defensive end in base sets. Watt has the versatility to play weakside end or strongside end as a run defender. Just from a fronts perspective, Watt should fit seamlessly into what Arizona is already running. Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph and former Texans defensive coordinators Romeo Crennel and Anthony Weaver run similar fronts that look like traditional 3-4 defenses when they’re in base defense.
There isn’t really anyone on the current Cardinals roster that Watt will have to compete with for reps. Zach Allen and Jordan Phillips and other players will have to fit in around Watt.
Watt’s standing along the Cardinals defensive line is set in stone, but defensive linemen in free agency don’t collect this kind of money for their run defense. Watt needs to be an effective pass rusher for the Cardinals to find value on this deal, which is where the forecast gets a bit murkier.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Watt ranked 64th in pressure rate (9.1%) amongst the 78 defenders to record at least 30 pressures on the season. That doesn’t quite tell the whole story of his current status as a pass rusher, but it does show that he’s obviously not the dominant force that he once was.
In Watt’s defense, he didn’t have anyone like Cardinals edge rusher Chandler Jones across from him in Houston last season. Watt led the Texans with just five sacks and only Whitney Mercilus and Charles Omenihu finished with four. Jones, his new teammate had just one sack in five games last year, but had 49 sacks in the three seasons prior to that.
As the Cardinals start to piece this defense together with Watt in the fold, they might want to consider using him as an interior rusher more than an edge rusher. He did blow by offensive tackles a few times last year, but at this point in his career his athleticism might best be served as a three technique in rush packages.
With Jones out, the Cardinals still managed to rank 12th in pressure rate over the past season (40.6%), according to Sports Info Solutions. They have to be imagining that the re-addition of Jones and the addition of Watt can take this pass rush to a new level. That’s especially important in a division where the Rams are upgrading to Matthew Stafford at quarterback, the 49ers will be getting Jimmy Garoppolo back or upgrading from him, and Russell Wilson still exists.
This move was a risk for the Cardinals, but it’s one that has a chance to pay dividends if Jones and Watt are playing like top-tier defensive linemen again.