The Miami Heat (16-17) host the Atlanta Hawks (14-19) Sunday at American Airlines Arena for the first game of a two-game miniseries. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Hawks-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Atlanta started February with a winning record but has gone on three- and four-game losing streaks this month. The Hawks have alternated between winning and losing over their last seven games (3-4 straight up and against the spread) and are coming off a 118-109 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder as 5.5-point road favorites Friday.
The Heat have started to look like the team many NBA experts forecasted before the season and are winners of five in a row (5-0 ATS). Their most recent win was as impressive of a victory as you can have at this point in the season; Miami took down the white-hot Utah Jazz 124-116 as a 6.5-point home underdog Friday.
The Hawks won the final head-to-head meeting last season but lost the other three games to the Heat and were 1-3 ATS in the season series.
Hawks at Heat: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Hawks +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Heat -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Hawks +6.5 (-115) | Heat -6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 219.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Hawks at Heat: Key injuries
Hawks
- SF Danilo Gallinari (forearm) probable
- PG Trae Young (groin) questionable
- SF Cam Reddish (Achilles) doubtful
- SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) out
- SF De’Andre Hunter (knee) out
Heat
- C Bam Adebayo (knee) probable
- SG Tyler Herro (hip) questionable
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Hawks at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Heat 119, Hawks 107
Money line (ML)
PASS because Miami is the right side but betting the Heat at -250 is a bad long-term strategy. “Crazy” stuff happens all the time in the NBA regular season.
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Against the spread (ATS)
The HEAT -6.5 (-105) are starting to dial-in offensively and there are several holes they can poke in the Hawks defense.
For example, Atlanta doesn’t force a lot of turnovers (27th in turnover rate), it sends opponents to the foul line (19th in defensive FTA/FG rate) and the Hawks are 26th in defensive effective field-goal percentage this month.
Miami is getting healthier and starting to look like last year’s team. The Heat averaged 120 points per game in back-to-back wins over an above-average Toronto Raptors defense and an elite Jazz D prior to Sunday’s game.
TAKE the HEAT -6.5 (-105) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
This part of the handicap is a little more reliant on the injury report because I’ll like the OVER 219.5 (-110) a little less if Young can’t play.
Miami’s offense has it going and Atlanta’s defense has declined this month. The Hawks will need to match the Heat’s scoring so even if Young is out, we should see a high volume of threes from Atlanta.
BET OVER 219.5 (-110) for a half-unit.
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Also see:
- Bet Slippin’ Podcast: PGA Tour double-dip and what’s up with James Harden’s MVP odds?
- Hoops Hype rumors: Hawks | Heat
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