The Atlanta Hawks (11-16) stop by TD Garden Wednesday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off with the Boston Celtics (14-13). Below, we analyze the Hawks-Celtics NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Atlanta is in the midst of a four-game losing skid, including three consecutive double-digit losses. The Hawks dropped seven of their past eight games. Over that span, they’re dead-last in points off of turnovers and 27th in fast-break points per game.
The Celtics’ 112-99 victory over the Denver Nuggets Tuesday ended a two-game losing skid and it’s only their second win in their last six games. Boston ranks last in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.47) and is shooting just the 26th-highest effective field-goal percentage (49.8) in its last six games.
The Hawks have lost seven straight and 10 of their past 11 games against the Celtics.
Hawks at Celtics: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Hawks +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Celtics -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Hawks +1.5 (-110) | Celtics -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Hawks at Celtics: Key injuries
Hawks
- SF Tony Snell (Achilles) available
- SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) out
- SF De’Andre Hunter (knee) out
- PG Rajon Rondo (back) out
Celtics
- PG Kemba Walker (knee/injury management) out
- C Daniel Theis (finger) out
- SG Marcus Smart (calf) out
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Hawks at Celtics: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Celtics 119, Hawks 112
Money line (ML)
Both teams are struggling mightily but the Hawks’ net rating is actually worse than the Celtics’ over the last six games for both teams. I was also much higher on Boston than Atlanta coming into the season, so I lean CELTICS (-120) for a half-unit.
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Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the spread because the money line isn’t much pricier.
Because the spread and money line are nearly identical, the ATS trend of Boston being 10-5 ATS with a plus-5.1 ATS margin in the second half of a back-to-back since the beginning of last season applies in this section.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 223.5 (-110) is my favorite play in Hawks-Celtics. The star players for each squad balled out last season against each other. Celtics wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both shot better than 50% from the field against the Hawks in the 2019-20 head-to-head series.
Atlanta PG Trae Young averaged 31.0 points on .442/.360/.882 shooting and PF John Collins scored 22.7 points per game on .650/.556/.917 shooting vs. Boston in 2019-20.
Also, Boston’s defense should be more affected by injuries than its offense. Theis is an average defensive big but he’s the best the Celtics have and Smart is one of the biggest difference-makers on defense in the league.
Boston is 27th in defensive field-goal percentage of attempts at the rim and Atlanta takes the 11th-highest volume of shots at the rim but is connecting at only the 20th-highest clip, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Finally, Atlanta excels at getting to the charity stripe and has the highest FTA/FGA rate while Boston is 25th in defensive FTA/FGA rate. TAKE OVER 223.5 (-110) for 1.25 units.
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Also see:
- MVP Race: Rudy Gobert enters the Top 10 (Hoops Hype)
- Nuggets at Celtics recap: Boston ends losing streak despite Nikola Jokic’s huge night (Celtics Wire)
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