The North Carolina Tar Heels (12-6 overall, 7-4 ACC) visit the Virginia Cavaliers (14-3, 10-1) in a Saturday evening (6 p.m. ET) contest at John Paul Jones Arena. Below, we analyze the North Carolina-Virginia college basketball odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Virginia is No. 9 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
North Carolina at Virginia: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: North Carolina +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Virginia -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: North Carolina +6.5 (-110) | Virginia -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 128.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
North Carolina at Virginia: Three things to know
- The Cavaliers are 10-1 since Dec. 30. Over that stretch, they’ve yielded just 58.5 points per game. Since struggling to beat Kent State in overtime on Dec. 4, UVA is 6-0 at home. The Wahoos have won those half-dozen games by an average of 14.8 points.
- UNC ranks sixth in ACC scoring at 74.1 PPG. But the Tar Heels are on a scoring binge of late. North Carolina has tallied 75 points or more in six of its last seven games. That includes a 91-point effort in its last game, a week ago at Duke. UNC had a Monday home game against Miami (Fla.) postponed. The Tar Heels’ Saturday game in Charlotte marks the team’s fourth straight on the road.
- Virginia has won six in a row against North Carolina, marking the longest UVA win streak in the series since 1911-16 (eight in a row). The Tar Heels haven’t won in Charlottesville since 2012.
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North Carolina at Virginia: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Virginia 66, North Carolina 57
Money line (ML)
North Carolina is a solid fade candidate in this contest. Playing their fourth game away from Chapel Hill, UNC is much weaker at both ends of the floor. Good shooting performances of late have come against lesser foes. The UVA defense the Tar Heels will see Saturday is coming off a particularly strong performance (40% effective field goal allowed) in a Wednesday win over Georgia Tech.
BACK THE CAVALIERS (-275).
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Against the spread (ATS)
The Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record.
The Wahoos are a top-10 team from distance; they’ve drained 26 triples over their last two home games. Three-point defense is a UNC weakness.
This one plays out to a 10-point cushion more likely than a five-point one: THERE IS SOLID VALUE ON VIRGINIA -6.5 (-105).
Over/Under (O/U)
The figure here may be scaring Under bettors off. That’s the lean, though, and a decent one at that: TAKE THE UNDER 128.5 (-110).
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