Late Saturday night, the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams executed a trade of starting quarterbacks. The Lions received Jared Goff, a third-round pick in the 2021 NFL draft, a first-round pick in 2022, and a first-round pick in 2023, then sent Matthew Stafford to LA.
While the trade can’t be completed until the league new year in mid-March, this deal will surely happen based on the extensive relationship between Lions’ general manager Brad Holmes and Rams’ general manager Les Snead.
Knowing this deal is coming, let’s take a closer look at how this decision will impact the Lions’ salary in 2021 and beyond.
Stafford opens up $14 M in new cap space
I broke this down in more detail last week, but here are the main things to know.
In this trade situation, the Lions are responsible for all of Stafford’s remaining signing bonus money on his current contract. Per Overthecap.com, that equates to $19 million and all of it will be applied to their 2021 salary cap.
The Lions were set to pay Stafford $33 million this season, but when you remove that contract from their salary cap total, then apply his cap hit of $19 million, they will free up $14 million in new cap space for 2021.
Goff’s contract breakdown
Just like the Lions have to absorb Stafford’s remaining signing bonus, the Rams’ have to do the same with Goff — that equates to $22.2 million left behind on the Rams’ 2021 salary cap.
But even with that large bonus gone, Goff still has a considerable amount of money left on his contract. Let’s take a closer look using Overthecap.com’s numbers and adjusting by removing the Rams responsibilities.
| Year | Base salary | Roster bonus | Guaranteed money | Cap number |
| 2021 | $25,650,000 | $2,500,000 | $27,500,000 | $28,150,000 |
| 2022 | $10,650,000 | $15,500,000 | $15,500,000 | $26,150,000 |
| 2023 | $20,650,000 | $5,000,000 | $0 | $25,650,000 |
| 2024 | $21,650,064 | $5,000,000 | $0 | $26,650,004 |
Note: while we prefer Overthecap.com as a resource, Spotrac.com is a secondary salary cap resource and their contract numbers are slightly different for Goff’s base salary — suggesting it is $325,000 less than Overthecap’s numbers in 2021, and $650,000 less in years 2022 through 2024. It’s not clear why this descripancy exists.
Goff’s 2021 guaranteed money suggests he is locked in as the Lions starter in 2021, but beyond that, the Lions could consider moving on from him if they had a replacement quarterback developed and ready to play.
A decision on Goff’s future with the team will need to be made early in 2022 because, in addition to his $15.5 million in guaranteed money in 2022, he has a $10+ million guarantee for injury clause that shifts to guaranteed money a little over a year from now. Meaning, if the Lions retain him in 2022, his $26.15 contract becomes fully guaranteed for the season — which isn’t a big deal if they’re planning on him starting for a second season.
If the Lions decide to move on from Goff before the $10 million becomes guaranteed, they have two possible scenarios:
- Release him from his contract and absorb a $15.5 million cap hit in 2022
- Trade him to another team willing to take on his contract and therefore the Lions would have a $0 cap hit in 2022
If Goff is still with the team in 2023 or beyond, they won’t have any guaranteed money connecting him to the team as long as they make a decision before the $5 million roster bonuses come due.
How Goff’s contract impacts the Lions 2021 salary cap
With the salary cap floor starting at $175 million (it is expected to rise), and the Lions rolling over $12.8 million from last season, they can currently spend up to $187.8 million on the 2021 roster.
The Lions have 51 players currently under contract, and when we adjust for Stafford’s cap hit, as well as the addition of Goff’s contract, the Lions have $199.3 million invested.
That’s $11.5 million over the allotted amount.
If the NFL sets the salary cap above $175 million, the Lions number will adjust accordingly. For example, if the cap rises to $185 million, the Lions would only be over $1.5 million.
To adjust to this deficit, the Lions will surely be examining the roster for bloated contracts that they can shed — a common practice, especially in a rebuild. A quick examination of some of the Lions’ larger contracts in 2021 suggests the Lions could free up another $20-30 million in available space.
Would the Lions consider restructuring Goff’s contract to free up space in 2021?
If the Lions want to free up cap space this season, they do have the option of restricting his contract. By taking a large portion of Goff’s base salary and converting it into a signing bonus, the Lions could free up around $20 million or so in immediate cap space.
The downside of a restructure is that all the converted money would become guaranteed money that cap it is spread out over the remaining years of his contract — and that means, not only does his cap hit go up each of the following three years, but there is now a guaranteed cap hit if the Lions decide to move on via release or trade at any point in the next four years.
If Goff is in the Lions’ long-term plans, it might make sense to free up more money now, but it’s worth noting that the tone of the offseason for the Lions has been building for 2022/2023 and beyond.