Final predictions for the SEC Championship Game

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For a matchup between the nation’s two most prolific passers, this year’s SEC Championship game has been a little bit slept on. It’s understandable why, though. Had the Gators beaten LSU last week and entered this game with one loss, perhaps the national media would have given them more consideration.

But they lost to a team with a losing record, and now they enter this bout with the nation’s top team, No. 1 Alabama, as heavy underdogs. UA is a 17.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM.

Alabama’s boasts a fierce offensive attack led by Heisman-contending quarterback Mac Jones and his stud receiver, Devonta Smith. But beyond the Crimson Tide’s unstoppable passing game, they can bruise opposing defenses through the use of running back Najee Harris, who has 22 total touchdowns on the season.

This should be cause for concern for Florida, which hasn’t improved much defensively over the course of the season. Against the Tigers last week, it made true freshman quarterback Max Johnson, who was making his first start, look like a seasoned veteran.

Candidly, forcing a single punt against Alabama would be a victory for UF. That’s not to say that it couldn’t hang around in a shootout, though.

Quarterback Kyle Trask has produced at nearly unthinkable levels all season, and Alabama’s defense has shown moments of weakness, such as when it allowed 48 points to Ole Miss.

The Gators should be able to score on Saturday. The only question will be how much.

They left points on the field in the loss to LSU with poor execution in the red zone and on third downs. Trask turned the ball over three times in that one.

Alabama is tied for first in the SEC in takeaways, and if you make those kinds of mistakes against it, it will make you pay.

As good as Florida’s offense is, we haven’t seen it in a position where it’s forced to come from behind. If Alabama can capture a multi-score lead early, it could be incredibly difficult for the Gators to fight their way back.

Making it to this game is an accomplishment in and of itself. To get here, Florida defeated Georgia for the first time since 2016 despite the Bulldogs remaining well ahead of the Gators in terms of recruiting progress. Coach Dan Mullen deserves credit for that.

But Alabama is a different animal. The Crimson Tide are playing their best football of the season, while UF has been sleepwalking since it beat UGA. The Gators have a good enough offense to keep this one competitive for a while, but their defense simply isn’t up to par. Imagining what Jones and Smith will do to Florida’s struggling secondary makes me uneasy, and no amount of Kyle-to-Kyle magic will be enough to overcome that.