The Atlanta Falcons (4-9) host the NFC South rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5) Sunday afternoon. Kickoff at Mercedes-Benz Stadium will be at 1 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the Buccaneers-Falcons betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.
Buccaneers at Falcons: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 8:26 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Buccaneers -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Falcons +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
- Against the spread/ATS: Buccaneers -5.5 (-115) | Falcons +5.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 49.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Buccaneers at Falcons: Game notes
- The Falcons have lost back-to-back games, including a 20-17 loss at the Los Angeles Chargers last week.
- The Buccaneers came out of a Week 13 bye having lost back-to-back games, but they topped the visiting Minnesota Vikings 26-14 in Week 14.
- The teams split their head-to-head series in 2019 with both teams winning on the road, but those were with QB Jameis Winston under center for Tampa Bay. The two will play their second game of the 2020 season in Week 17 (Jan. 3).
- The Falcons have been held to fewer than 20 points in three of their last four games, and they’re 22nd by Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA for the season. They rank 21st in pass offense but 28th in rush offense.
- Atlanta’s rushing attack, led by RB Todd Gurley, is 30th in yards per rush, while Tampa Bay’s rush defense allows the fewest yards per attempt.
- Both teams have a highly-ranked pass rush with Atlanta at No. 3 by ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate and Tampa Bay ranked sixth. The Buccaneers have the fourth-most sacks in the league while the Falcons are just 19th.
Buccaneers at Falcons: Key injuries
Buccaneers
- LB Jason Pierre-Paul (knee) questionable
Falcons
- WR Julio Jones (hamstring) questionable
- OT Kaleb McGary (personal) questionable
- S Ricardo Allen (concussion) questionable
- DB Darqueze Dennard (quadriceps) questionable
- DL Marlon Davidson (knee) questionable
Buccaneers at Falcons: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Buccaneers 27, Falcons 19
Money line (?)
We won’t take the Buccaneers (-275) despite a high degree of confidence in them securing the win on the road. They’re fighting for the NFC South title while the Falcons are being featured in 2021 mock drafts.
It’s just not worth the risk to wager more than two times the potential return on a money line bet for a rivalry game.
PASS.
Against the spread (?)
The BUCCANEERS -5.5 (-115) are getting a rather conservative number coming off a 12-point win in Week 14. The Falcons had plenty of opportunities to win last week and failed to do so against a much worse defense than the one they’ll face Sunday.
Tampa Bay will win by at least 6 points, as it has in all but one of its eight victories on the year.
Over/Under (?)
Let’s take the UNDER 49.5 (-110). The Falcons have been settling for field goals all season. That’s unlikely to change with Jones expected to miss another game and the Atlanta rushing attack running into of its toughest opponents of the season.
Want action on this NFL game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Also see:
- OT Wirfs exceeding lofty expectations (Bucs Wire)
- 10 things Atlanta must figure out (Falcons Wire)
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