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The Miami Dolphins are now 8-5 on the season and no matter what will enter Week 15 against the New England Patriots as the AFC’s 7th-seed in the conference standings. With the expanded playoffs in 2020, the Dolphins are right on the fringe of the postseason and will play 16 meaningful football games this season after seeing their season in 2019 never get off the ground until it was too late.
But with a three-game schedule left featuring the New England Patriots, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Buffalo Bills, the Dolphins are not afforded the same luxury as their number one threat to the postseason at this juncture, the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore’s remaining strength of schedule (they play the 9-3 Browns today on Monday Night Football to close Week 14), through Weeks 15-17 is much less imposing. Baltimore will face the New York Giants, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
How does the math favor the Dolphins? FiveThirtyEight’s NFL projections currently favors Baltimore over Miami for the odds to secure a postseason berth. Miami is currently given a 33% chance to make the postseason whereas the Ravens are afforded 64% odds. If the Ravens win tonight against Cleveland, Miami’s odds are cut to just 27%.
Conversely, a Browns win against Baltimore and wins for the Dolphins over the next two weeks will guarantee the Dolphins a playoff berth regardless of what circumstances meet the Dolphins in Week 17 against the Buffalo Bills. Winning against New England and Las Vegas isn’t a shoo-in for the Dolphins and Miami must decipher how healthy they are after a brutal afternoon against the Kansas City Chiefs saw TE Mike Gesicki and WR DeVante Parker leave the game early due to injuries. If the Dolphins offense must operate without both of those talents over the next two games, winning becomes suddenly much more complicated and the Dolphins’ lack of depth (and recent string of poor luck with injuries) may catch up with them before the end of the season.
But for now, the rooting interest of the Dolphins is clear: the Cleveland Browns can do the Dolphins a major favor with a win tonight against the Ravens to open the door for a 10-win Miami team to make the postseason.