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Nick Chubb has put the last two Cleveland Browns victories on ice with tremendous fourth-quarter runs. Those were not fluke runs in those situations.
Chubb leads the entire NFL in a stat called “rushing yards over expected” in the fourth quarter of games. It’s a metric from Next Gen Stats that evaluates what a running back would expect to gain on a carry based on the blocking and defense versus what he actually gains.
Nobody does that better than Chubb. In fact, Chubb leads the NFL in the fourth quarter yards over expected since he entered the league in 2018 as a second-round pick by the Browns. He’s blowing away Tennessee’s Derrick Henry in that category since 2018.
The motion graphic here from Next Gen Stats illustrates how Chubb exceeds the expected yards. Note the early tackle chances that No. 24 just blows right through…
Nick Chubb has gained +387 rushing yards over expected in the 4th quarter since 2018, 135 more than the next closest player (Derrick Henry: +252).
Rushing Yards: 54
Expected Rushing Yards: 4
Yards Over Expected: +50#PHIvsCLE | #Browns pic.twitter.com/sthVpbz9as— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 22, 2020
Overall, Chubb ranks second in rushing yards over expected in the total 2020 season, trailing only Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook. Remember, one of the components of getting yards over expected is the blocking, and the Browns have one of the best run-blocking offenses in football.