The Houston Texans (2-7) host the New England Patriots (4-5) Sunday at NRG Stadium in a matchup of two of the most disappointing teams in the AFC. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the Patriots-Texans betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.
Patriots at Texans: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Patriots -132 (bet $132 to win $100) | Texans +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Patriots -1.5 (-110) | Texans +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 48.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Patriots at Texans: Game notes
- Both the Patriots and Texans made the playoffs last season. The Texans advanced to the Divisional Round, while the Patriots were knocked out in the wild-card round.
- They both lost star power this offseason with the Texans trading WR DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals and QB Tom Brady leaving the Pats for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers via free agency.
- The two teams are well outside the 2020 playoff picture as a result. The Patriots rank just 27th in the league with 21.0 points scored per game. The Texans are 25th with 22.2 PPG scored.
- Houston isn’t significantly better defensively, while ranked 26th with 28.0 PPG allowed. The Patriots surrender an average of 23.4 PPG to rank 10th in the NFL.
- New England has won back-to-back games for the first time all season after snapping a four-game losing streak. The Pats beat the New York Jets 30-27 and followed it with a more impressive 23-17 upset of the Baltimore Ravens in primetime.
- The Texans’ two victories have come against the AFC South rival Jacksonville Jaguars by scores of 30-14 and 27-25. They lost 10-7 at the Cleveland Browns in a bad weather game last week.
- Texans QB Deshaun Watson comes in as the better of the two passers in this game. He has 2,539 yards and 18 touchdowns against 5 interceptions. Patriots QB Cam Newton has just 1,535 yards and 3 TDs against 7 INTs, but he has rushed for 335 yards and 9 scores.
Patriots at Texans: Key injuries
Patriots
- CB Stephon Gilmore (knee) questionable
- DL Lawrence Guy (shoulder, elbow, knee) questionable
- RB Damien Harris (ankle, chest) questionable
- WR N’Keal Harry (shoulder) questionable
- G Shaq Mason (calf) questionable
- TE Ryan Izzo (hamstring) questionable
- LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (groin) questionable
- DE Deatrich Wise (knee) questionable
- G Joe Thuney (ankle) questionable
- OT Isaiah Wynn (ankle) questionable
Texans
- S Michael Thomas (shoulder) out
- WR Kenny Stills (back) questionable
- OT Laremy Tunsil (illness) questionable
- OG Senio Kelemete (concussion) questionable
Patriots at Texans: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Texans 27, Patriots 20
Money line (?)
This is a textbook example of a “Patriots line”, whereby they’re favored simply because they’re the more popular team and will inherently receive a skewed share of the betting handle. The Texans are far more talented offensively, and injuries are making matters much worse for the Pats this week.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick easily wins the coaching battle against Texans interim boss Romeo Crennel, but side with Watson and take the TEXANS (+110) to win outright as home underdogs.
Against the spread (?)
We can hedge our money line bet with a smaller sprinkle on the TEXANS +1.5 (-110) for 1 point of insurance in the event of a loss. They’ve been finding ways to lose games all season and are just 2-7 ATS so we’d be foolish to not play it safe whenever possible.
Over/Under (?)
Take the UNDER 48.5 (-110) on an already-low projection. The Patriots don’t have much more reliable backfield depth behind Harris (RB Sony Michel remains on IR) and will struggle to move the chains, even against the woeful Texans run defense, if he sits.
The New England defense is just good enough to keep the Texans from running away with it.
Want action on this NFL game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Also see:
- Gilmore clears up misconceptions on health (Patriots Wire)
- Cobb seeking to finish strong despite frustrating season (Texans Wire)
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