In a light heavyweight bout in the five-round main event, Thiago Santos and Glover Teixeira meet at UFC on ESPN+ 40 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Santos (21-7) steps into the octagon with a 4.44 to 3.74 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over his counterpart. He’ll be champing at the bit to get back into the octagon after a split-decision loss for the light heavyweight strap at UFC 239 against Jon “Bones” Jones on July 6, 2019. It was a costly loss, too, as he suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament, medial collateral ligament and posterior cruciate ligament in his left knee, as well as damage to the meniscus. The 16-month recovery and hiatus are the longest of his career, so we’ll see if rust is a factor.
Teixeira (31-7) heads into this one looking to tie Ryan Bader for second in wins in the light heavyweight division with 15. The veteran also enters this bout tied with Ovince Saint Preux for the most finishes in the division with 11, including six KO/TKO wins. Plus, he is tied with four others for the most submission victories with five. Teixeira has also recorded 23 takedowns landed, which shows his tremendous versatility and ability to finish in a multitude of ways. He enters on a four-fight winning streak, including a KO/TKO in the main event over Anthony Smith on May 13 in Jacksonville. Three of his past four fights have finished inside the distance, a sign that the 41-year-old veteran isn’t even close to being finished.
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Thiago Santos vs. Glover Teixeira: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6 a.m. ET.
TEIXEIRA (+200) is worth a small-unit wager with a chance to double up. Santos (-250) could be quite rusty after a lengthy absence and rehab following a career-threatening injury. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Santos rather tentative in the early going, and Teixeira heads into the octagon on quite the roll.
However, do not look for this fight to be a short one. Santos will likely be tentative, as mentioned, and cautious as he gets his sea legs back. Go OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-152) for a slam-dunk total number of rounds wager, and playing OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+125) is a decent small-unit play, too, at plus-money.
On the 5-way line, TEIXEIRA BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+350) is a strong value play with the chance to return three and a half times your initial stake.
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Also see:
- UFC on ESPN+ 40 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- Santos, Teixeira angle to steal Adesanya’s title shot (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
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