As a disclaimer to start this off, the New England Patriots are better off with Stephon Gilmore on the roster. There’s no doubt about the fact that the reigning Defensive Player of the Year is an irreplaceable piece for the defense.
But, there are complications that lead to the question: Was the smartest move to trade Gilmore at the Nov. 3 deadline?
As aforementioned, the smartest move at face value is to keep him on the roster. Gilmore has accrued First-Team All-Pro nods and Pro Bowl selections over the past two seasons. He’s undoubtedly the best player on New England’s roster and he gives Bill Belichick the flexibility to run man-heavy schemes.
The complications come with his 30-years of age, the money involved to keep him around and the glaring 2-5 record that’s nearly impossible to overcome.
Beginning with his age, it’s hard to see the Patriots re-sign Gilmore to another long-term contract. The Patriots don’t have a history of doing this and his original five-year, $65 million contract was already a stretch. Gilmore has been an extremely reliable for a cornerback entering his thirties, but that reliability isn’t a guarantee for a player his age.
New England would make a huge mistake by signing him long-term on a deal that goes over two years. There’s no precedence for this and the Patriots already have to worry about his $17 million cap hit he has next season.
That $17 million cap hit is the reason the Patriots will likely let him go this offseason. New England has J.C. Jackson (24), Joejuan Willams (22), Jonathan Jones (27) and up-and-coming corner Myles Bryant (22) — who all have youth on their side. If the Patriots traded Gilmore at the trade deadline, they could’ve potentially snagged a first or second-round pick.
Therefore, they wouldn’t have to deal with the money issue and the flexibility would be there to draft a top cornerback next offseason. Sporting News perfectly breaks down how Gilmore’s contract could affect the Patriots next season.
Gilmore’s base salary for the whole 2020 season is $13 million. He’d have about 9/17ths of that remaining to be paid by a team that would acquire him at the trade deadline, which equates to approximately $6.9 million. In addition, Gilmore is paid about $156K for each game he is active in 2020, which would lead to another nearly $1.5 million paid to Gilmore by an acquiring team if he plays every game the rest of the regular season.
A team that acquires Gilmore would almost certainly keep him on in 2021, but if that team chose to release Gilmore at the start of the next league year, his dead cap number is $7.67 million, almost $10 million in savings from what Gilmore’s cap hit would be on a roster in 2021.
The final aspect is the team’s record. At first, the Patriots were 2-1 with a loss to the Seattle Seahawks that was down to the final play. New England appeared to be rolling and prepared to compete for a playoff run without Tom Brady on the roster. Gilmore was set to the be the defensive anchor, while Cam Newton put a depleted offensive unit on his back.
Fast-forward to now, the Patriots are a two-win team that has less than a five percent chance to win the AFC East. The Miami Dolphins have a 4-3 record and the that’s just within the division the Patriots have dominated so regularly. The Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens have more talent than the Patriots could even hope for.
Why keep the league’s best corner on the roster for the rest of the season, when there’s close to no hope for a winning season, or a future contract for him? The smartest move would’ve been to alleviate the cap space and prepare for the 2021 season.
The Patriots couldn’t find a suitor to attain Gilmore, and that’s likely the reason he made it past the trade deadline. Knowing the history of Belichick, the Patriots were likely more active than the public is aware of. If someone put a first-round pick and a defensive player on the table — Belichick would’ve jumped on it.
For the 2020 season, Gilmore will remain a crucial part in walking away with a somewhat respectable record. For the future, he’ll likely go elsewhere, with his legacy etched into one of the greatest dynasties in the history of pro sports.