[jwplayer RBM9SWQx-ThvAeFxT]
Pro Football Focus recently simulated the NFL season 10,000 times from its current point to not only determine how things are likely to shake out, but which team ultimately lands the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
With that pick, PFF projects a franchise “will be changed forever” with the selection of Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who they tout as the best QB prospect in college football history.
Unsurprisingly, the New York Giants (0-4) were among those with the best odds at landing that pick, checking in at No. 2 overall behind the New York Jets.
2. NEW YORK GIANTS
Week 1 gave hope to Giants fans and the franchise as a whole that quarterback Daniel Jones would be taking a Year 2 leap. He earned a respectable 79.5 passing grade against the Steelers in that outing, making a couple of big-time throws in the process and posting one of the lowest negatively graded throw rates of the week. But in the following three weeks, Jones looked like his normal self and the Giants’ offensive efficiency plummeted. He earned a 62.2 passing grade in that span, and the Giants dropped to second-to-last in expected points added per pass (-0.18) — barely ahead of the Jets.
Jones still has time to turn things back around, but if he continues this lowly play throughout the season and the Giants find themselves at the No. 1 overall pick, it should be an easy decision to cut ties and snag Lawrence. I say this because 1) Lawrence is that good, and 2) according to our findings, we can project with more certainty a quarterback’s career following their performance in Year 2.
Jones and the Giants offense have certainly left a bit to be desired this season, but as we’ve alluded to previously, they would be no better with Lawrence or even Joe Montana under center.
The Giants certainly have a plethora of needs offensively, but the quarterback is far from the top of that list.
Still, if New York somehow lands the No. 1 overall pick, it will be interesting to see what the general manager — who is unlikely to be Dave Gettleman at that point — would do.
[lawrence-related id=657152,656365]