Offseason prediction time can be controversial in college football, and often fans of programs believe their team is being underrated by the national media while their rivals are overhyped.
But what do the numbers say?
CBS Sports attempted to answer that question, measuring which teams overperform or underperform on a year-to-year basis based on their preseason expectations.
Florida was considered “+1” meaning that, on average, it slightly overperforms based on its preseason predictions, but it generally finishes around where it was projected to.
CBS Sports listed the Gators in the “properly ranked” section, along with Arkansas, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Here’s what they had to say about the Gators.
The Gators have been pretty stable over the last two seasons, but the wild ride came during the Jim McElwain years from 2015-17. They surprised everybody by winning the SEC East in 2015 after being picked fifth and did it again the next season after being predicted to finish second. The roller coaster went speeding downhill in 2016 when they finished fifth after being picked to finish second. Not surprisingly, McElwain was fired two months into that season.
And here are the full rankings.
|
TEAM |
PERFORMANCE
VS. HYPE |
AVERAGE
PER YEAR |
|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | +9 | +1.13 |
| Mississippi State | +9 | +1.13 |
| Vanderbilt | +4 | +0.50 |
| Missouri | +3 | +0.38 |
| Texas A&M | +2 | +0.25 |
| Ole Miss | +1 | +0.13 |
| Florida | +1 | +0.13 |
| Alabama | -2 | -0.25 |
| LSU | -2 | -0.25 |
| Arkansas | -3 | -0.38 |
| Georgia | -4 | -0.50 |
| Auburn | -5 | -0.62 |
| Tennessee | -5 | -0.62 |
| South Carolina | -8 | -1.00 |
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