In a league of 32 teams… your team being in eighth place in terms of chances at winning the upcoming Super Bowl? Not bad at all, and that’s exactly where ESPN’s ranks the Bill’s shot at bringing home a title in 2020 using their Football Power Index.
According to the FPI, the Bills’ chances at the Super Bowl win sit at just three percent, but that’s still higher than a lot of teams in the NFL. The Jaguars enter the upcoming year with a “less than 0.1% chance,” per ESPN’s FPI, so it could be worse.
In slotting the Bills at the No. 8 overall spot, analyst Bill Barnwell makes the case for Buffalo playing in the final game of the upcoming season. As one might expect, it has a lot to do with quarterback Josh Allen playing well enough:
For the Bills, it’s simple. Can Josh Allen become a league-average passer? Allen adds value as a runner, and we’ve seen teams make it to the Super Bowl with less-effective quarterbacks before, but having to rely on a quarterback with below-average passing numbers reduces your margin for error. Buffalo ranked seventh in defensive DVOA a year ago, and while that was enough to make it back into the postseason for the second time in three years, Allen wasn’t able to do enough to help push them past the Texans in the wild-card round.
Barnwell adds that the Bills would have to see their defense play as a top-three unit, along with some at least average play from Allen in order for Buffalo to end their Super Bowl drought.
While the Bills do list at No. 8 overall, the Pats are right behind the Bills in the 10th spot, also with a three percent shot at winning it all. However, their odds to make the playoffs slip below Buffalo’s, according to ESPN’s FPI. The Bills sit at a 61.1 percent chance while the Patriots are at 59.5 percent. That’s why New England is behind the Bills.
The top of the list sees two teams well ahead of Buffalo, though. The Chiefs are giving a 21.1 percent FPI chance of winning another title, while the Ravens are in second place behind KC in FPI Super Bowl percent at 16.1. But there is a silver lining, those two teams are the only from the AFC ahead of the Bills, so technically, Buffalo has the conference’s third-best chance to win the Super Bowl in terms of their FPI.
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