Positional value in the NFL is a fluid concept. Schemes change based on overall league tendencies, and all of a sudden, that third linebacker that would have been one of your higher-paid players a decade ago is near the league minimum now because your defense plays nickel or dime 80% of the time. Or that head coach who loved “21” personnel is replaced by an Air Raid guy, and all of a sudden, your running backs aren’t worth what they once were.
Over the last few seasons, the safety market has provided a fascinating study in market expansion. In 2018, the market for free agents at the position, whether they were full-time safeties or safeties part of the time and positional “jokers” at other times, was so depressed, one of those safeties accused the NFL of collusion — that the league had set the positional value low because nobody wanted to pay Eric Reid after his protests with Colin Kaepernick when Reid and Kaepernick were teammates in San Francisco. Tre Boston pointed out that in 2017, Eric Berry, Kam Chancellor, and Reshad Jones all received lucrative deals before the market crashed.
“It’s right in front of our eyes,” Tre Boston told Robert Mays of The Ringer in August, 2018. “Somebody’s got to call a spade a spade… People have to think beyond just one person. How are you going to look at a whole market if you sign everybody and one person is left? You don’t put yourself in that predicament. You devalue the whole market.
“Last year, [there were] three highly paid safeties. It was the highest our market has ever been. And then it just flops this year. It’s the first year any top-five group of free agents has waited into training camp. And a week into camp two of the top five sign. It’s just obvious [what the reasoning is]. I don’t understand why the questions are even there.”
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Whatever the reasons, safeties found it tougher than ever to maintain any level of long-term security back then. Boston, one of the best deep safeties over the last five seasons, wound up signing a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the Cardinals. Boston moved from the Panthers, to the Chargers, to the Cardinals, and back to the Panthers, before he finally got the three-year, $18 million contract he deserved in 2020. Tyrann Mathieu, who played at a Defensive Player of the Year level for the Chiefs in 2019, had to settle for a one-year, $7 million deal with the Texans in 2018. He balled out as he tends to do, and the Chiefs were smart enough to sign him to a three-year, $42 million deal before the 2019 campaign.
That weird valley in value is over now. On Tuesday, the Cardinals signed Budda Baker to a four-year, $59 million contract extension that makes him the highest-paid player at his position in the league. At $14.75 million per year, Baker’s contract now exceeds those of Chicago’s Eddie Jackson ($14.6 million per year), Tennessee’s Kevin Byard ($14.1 million per year), Washington’s Landon Collins ($14 million per year) and Mathieu ($14 million per year).
Perhaps the most interesting thing about Baker leading the charge is that while he’s an obviously dynamic player on the field and he led the NFL in solo tackles with 104 last season, his pass defense metrics were… not great. And they haven’t been throughout his career. Last season, per Pro Football Focus, Baker allowed 36 receptions on 47 targets for 400 yards, 205 yards after catch, two touchdowns, no picks, and an opponent passer rating of 115.6. He’s allowed eight touchdowns and has had no interceptions in his three-year career.
Not that pass defense stats are the end-all and be-all — in fact, Baker’s versatility might be what the Cardinals are banking on as it reflects a league-wide need. Mathieu embodied that in his amazing 2019 season, and in 2019, Baker played 36 snaps at the defensive line, 340 in the box (linebacker depth), 182 in the slot, 18 at boundary cornerback, and 544 at free safety.
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You need look no further for proof of the NFL’s high valuation of do-it-all safeties than the Seahawks trading their first-round picks in both 2021 and 2022, as well as a 2021 third-round pick and safety Bradley McDougald, to the Jets for the services of safety Jamal Adams and a 2022 fourth-round pick. Adams has better coverage stats than Baker does, and he’s similarly versatile in that he can blitz from the line, take seam routes from the slot, trail as a boundary cornerback, deal with run fits in the box, and call the action from the deep third.
Another thing to consider about Jamal Adams: He's not talked about enough as such, but he fits the paradigm of the modern positionless defender. In 2019, 97 snaps at DL. 400 box, 131 slot, 34 CB, 297 FS. He is exactly what the NFL wants right now. Not at all just a safety.
— Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) July 25, 2020
“Not at all just a safety” might be the new buzzword, and the Baker contract will certainly inform whatever long-term deal the Seahawks make with Adams, who is currently under contract through the 2021 season.
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Adams isn’t the only one whose versatility will likely mean a huge salary bump in time. Early last season, the Steelers traded their 2020 first-round pick to the Dolphins for defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick, and found the deal to be more than worth it as Fitzpatrick moved from the “joker” role (where he was one of the league’s best slot defenders in his rookie season of 2018) to nearly full-time free safety and redefined a defense that was in trouble before his arrival.
Fitzpatrick is also contracted through the 2021 season, and you can bet that Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert is already figuring out the best way to keep him with the team in a longer-term sense. Per Sports Info Solutions, Steelers opponents had a passing EPA per play (Expected Points Added) of 0.29 when Fitzpatrick wasn’t on the field, and -0.22 when he was. No matter where you line up, that’s value.
There’s still room and need to pay the more traditional deep third safety if that player is playing at an outstanding pace. In 2019, Anthony Harris of the Vikings was the league’s only player with seven interceptions and no touchdowns allowed. Minnesota currently has Harris on the franchise tag with a one-year, $11.441 deal, but Harris had proven that he deserves the kind of security a lot of great safeties have struggled to find in recent years.
But here’s the thing — even Harris has been moving around. Last season, he had 588 snaps at free safety, but also 265 in the box, 161 in the slot, 14 at the defensive line, and four at boundary corner.
For the modern safety, the message is clear: If you want to get paid at the going rate, you’d better be able to play all over the field. Versatility is the new certainty.