In the eyes of the sports betting community, the matchup between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder is the closest of all eight series in the first round of the 2020 NBA playoffs.
According to Tuesday’s update from Oddschecker, the Rockets will go into the series as a narrow favorite — with odds of -148 indicating a 59.67% chance of advancing to the second round.
The Thunder, however, are only slight underdogs, with their +140 odds equating to an implied chance of 41.67% to advance.
Oddschecker determines its lines by examining the current odds for each team across up to 10 leading sportsbooks, including BetMGM. They then highlight the most friendly number available to bettors.
For example, at some sportsbooks, Houston’s position as the series favorite is as strong as -162. But Oddschecker uses -148 as the official figure for the Rockets, since anyone backing them would be incentivized to search for the closest odds, and thus the highest potential payout.
One key storyline is the health of All-Star guard Russell Westbrook, who the Rockets will be without in Game 1 due to a right quad strain. While Houston is hopeful that he will return at some point in the series, there is no official timeline yet — and that uncertainty works to OKC’s favor.
On Rockets vs. Thunder, @ShamsCharania said this to @PatMcAfeeShow today:
"I’m told Russell Westbrook has started some light on-court workouts, light shooting. There is some hope he could play as soon as this weekend. … Cautious optimism." #OneMission https://t.co/LIJFaAIFvY
— Ben DuBose (@BenDuBose) August 17, 2020
Considering that both teams finished with identical 44-28 records, even with Westbrook playing in most games, it’s understandable why bettors could lean to Oklahoma City amid his absence. As of Tuesday, 67% of all bets placed on the market had backed Chris Paul and the Thunder to win the series, as compared to just 33% for the Rockets.
“It’s no secret that the Rockets and the Thunder aren’t fans of each other, and both sets of players are certain to leave it all out there on the court,” said Pete Watt, Oddschecker spokesperson. “Although the percentage of bets on the Thunder demonstrates that sports bettors think they are a slightly better value wager, this is almost a pick ‘em. If your team didn’t make the playoffs, this is the series to watch.”
Thunder. Rockets.
Round 1. Let's go 🍿 pic.twitter.com/3XGgiCgVEu
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 13, 2020
The fact that Houston remains a series favorite despite a clear majority of overall bets favoring Oklahoma City may indicate that some of the larger financial wagers (i.e. sharps, or professionals) are on the side of MVP finalist James Harden and the Rockets.
The competitiveness of the Rockets-Thunder series comes in stark contrast to some of the other first-round series. The Milwaukee Bucks, by comparison, are being given a 98.04% chance of defeating Orlando.
Tuesday’s Game 1 between the Rockets and Thunder tips off at 5:30 p.m. Central, with a national broadcast on TNT and a regional version (with Houston announcers) on AT&T SportsNet Southwest. For subscribers, both networks have streaming options on their mobile apps.
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