With Utah’s 122-114 loss (box score) to Dallas on Monday afternoon, the Houston Rockets have now officially clinched a top-five seed in the 2020 Western Conference playoffs.
The Rockets (44-25) are currently No. 4 in the West, with three games left to play in the 2019-20 season. The No. 6 Jazz (43-28) trail by three games in the loss column, and since Houston holds the tiebreaker, there is no scenario left where they can pass the Rockets in the standings.
It is also unlikely that Utah could pass Oklahoma City (43-27), which currently holds the No. 5 spot. Because the Thunder also hold the tiebreaker on Utah, the Jazz would need to win their regular-season finale versus San Antonio (who is fighting for a playoff spot) and have the Thunder lose their last two games, in order to move up to No. 5.
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As a result, a first-round matchup between the No. 4 Rockets and No. 5 Thunder is becoming more likely with each day. While the seeds may change, since Oklahoma City does hold the tiebreaker on Houston, that’s fairly inconsequential in this case — since games are being played without home-court advantage at the NBA’s Florida “bubble.”
Jazz tank, Mavs win.
For Utah to get 5th seed now, OKC will need to lose their 2 remaining games and the Jazz will have to beat SAS.
A Rockets-OKC first round series is looking very likely right now.
The new nightmare scenario is finishing 3rd over DEN to face DAL 1st round
— Disney Gary Clark (@Itamar1710) August 10, 2020
The winner of that series would likely face the top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers (51-18) in the second round. Houston may prefer that matchup, since they’ve defeated the Lakers in two of their three meetings this season, as compared to the likely second-seeded Clippers (47-23).
Led by reigning NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers defeated Houston twice this season, including a rout in March after Houston’s well-chronicled switch to a smaller lineup. By contrast, the Rockets went 2-0 against the larger Lakers following their stylistic change.
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On paper, the Rockets could still catch either the Clippers or No. 3 Denver (46-24) in the West standings, thus moving into the other side of the playoff bracket and drawing either Utah or Dallas (43-30) in the first round. But if they prefer to potentially face the Lakers in the second round, rather than the Clippers, they might not want to do that.
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The Rockets are resting superstar guard James Harden on Tuesday and fellow All-Star Russell Westbrook on Wednesday, which seems to indicate that they’re not placing a huge priority on winning out. Since they need to make up two games on the Nuggets and/or Clippers to rise further, winning their final three games is probably the only plausible path.
As it is, the Rockets seem content to stay at No. 4 or No. 5 and on the Lakers’ side of the bracket. If that’s the case, Monday’s loss by the Jazz is making it increasingly likely that Oklahoma City — and former Rockets guard Chris Paul — will be waiting as the first-round opponent.
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With this Jazz loss, the Rockets have secured a top 5 seed.
Even if the Rockets lose out and the Jazz win their remaining game, Houston will still be above Utah in the standings thanks to Eric Gordon's 50 piece which gave Houston the tie breaker.
— Disney Gary Clark (@Itamar1710) August 10, 2020