With the NBA set to return later this month, the New Orleans Pelicans will find themselves in the middle a vitally important eight-game stretch. The team will play four of its eight games against sides directly competing for a spot in the playoffs and will have ample opportunity to prove they belong in the postseason.
One of the biggest hurdles the team will have to overcome will be its lack of execution down the stretch in close games. With each game coming against either a playoff team or one vying for the eighth seed, each game figures to be tightly contested. But those situations have not been kind to New Orleans this season.
As noted in the breakdown of three questions the Pelicans must answer in the season’s restart, the team ranks in the bottom of the league in clutch situations, which the NBA describes as games that are within five points with five minutes to go. In 134 minutes in clutch situations, the Pelicans have a -21.7 net rating, the second-lowest rating in the league to just the Detroit Pistons. Offensively, their 96.0 rating is third-worst while their defensive rating of 117.7 is third-worst.
The defensive issues are worth their own film room piece and won’t be the focus of today’s article. Often, the Pelicans struggle defending pick-and-roll situations down the stretch with teams often putting Zion Williamson in situations where he must make decisions that a young player hasn’t had to make before.
But the offense is where the focus will be for this piece. Too often with the Pelicans down the stretch, the game devolves into players standing around and a shot being forced up later in the shot clock. As was the case often in the Pelicans game against Miami just before the restart, a game in which New Orleans actually won.
This sequence features what many possessions down the stretch feature for the Pelicans attempting to run a ball screen. Favors slips the screen and is open briefly but Ingram doesn’t make the pass. Because of the slow-developing nature of the possession, when Josh Hart receives the ball, he doesn’t have much of an option but to hoist a contested three-pointer that falls with right at 3:33 left in the game.
Two minutes later, a similar sequence plays out. This time, the Pelicans’ starting five is in the game and the more common action of a Brandon Ingram-Zion Williamson ball screen occurs. Miami switches the screen and the Heat can shade to Williamson as the roll man because Favors is not a threat from the far corner.
The other common problem with the Pelicans is that when the initial action fails, no one on the team can consistently create a shot for themselves which often results in a lot of dribbling and little movement away from the ball. Lonzo Ball does a lot of that dribbling before kicking to Ingram for a contested three-pointer that falls.
On the next possession, all of it is demonstrated again. Ingram gets another ball screen from Williamson. This time, Favors attempts to set a screen for Ball. Neither action results in an open look with Miami able to shade entirely off Favors and protect the rim. Ingram is forced to shoot yet another contested three and this one doesn’t fall.
The NBA is often called a make or miss league and on this night, the Heat routinely defended the Pelicans well on the defensive end but saw New Orleans make shots anyway. On the flip side, Miami saw Duncan Robinson go 8-for-14 from three and the rest of the team shoot 1-for-19.
The Pelicans’ offense late in the game often ends up in three-point shots, New Orleans has attempted the seventh-most three-pointers in clutch situations but are hitting just 29% from range at the end of games. On a per-minute basis in clutch situations, the team shoots an average amount of three-pointers at a bottom-10 conversion rate.
All season long, the Pelicans are at their best when running. According to Synergy, it’s their second most common action and their third most efficient. The difference in the looks they can create was seen in the team’s loss to the Timberwolves that occurred a week before the Miami game above.
The team forces a stop defensively and then get up the court, filling lanes. In attempting to match up in transition, D’Angelo Russell is late to get back and Ball is left open in the corner for a clean look.
The problem for the Pelicans, though, is that they’re inconsistent enough from range that teams have begun running zones against them. With Favors on the floor, the team struggles to create enough open looks and teams can ignore him offensively.
The offense immediately opens up when Favors makes way for a player like Josh Hart. Unlike other clips, the defense has to respect Hart in the corner unlike they had to with Favors. It creates enough of an opening that Ingram can hit Williamson on the roll and, 99 times out of 100, this shot ends with a dunk or layup.
The catch-22 with not having Favors on the floor is that he anchors the defense. With him on the floor, the Pelicans have a top-eight defensive rating in the league. With him off the court, it’s a bottom-ten rating.
The Pelicans’ problems aren’t as simple as whether Favors is on the court. Their starting lineup, which includes Favors, is one of the best in the league by net rating since Williamson’s debut. But when the game slows down, a team built on running will need to focus even more on executing in order to make a run at the playoffs.
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