(In this series, Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield takes a look at one important metric per NFL team to uncover a crucial problem to solve for the 2020 season. In this installment, it’s time to look at how the Detroit Lions need to protect Matthew Stafford in 2020, both for his health, and his production).
Times are certainly changing in Detroit with the Lions.
It was announced a few days ago that Martha Firestone Ford was stepping down from her position as the principal owner and chairperson of the Detroit Lions. Her daughter, Sheila Ford Hamp, is succeeding her in those positions.
What does this mean for the product on the field? It is unlikely that anything will change. Back in December both mother and daughter, along with team president Rod Wood, released an open letter to Lions fans, and their stance on the team in 2020 was adamant:
As we evaluate this season, we look beyond just our record. We are striving to build a team with a strong foundation of high-character players and coaches, that is physically and mentally tough, with depth at every position and one that can be successful over many years, not just one season. We see signs of this foundation in our team’s toughness, competitiveness and culture. Injuries happen in the NFL and are never an excuse. Nonetheless, our team has played through serious injuries this season to some of our best players. Despite the injuries, we have remained competitive in each game and our team depth showed up as a strength.
We also believe that the most successful teams in our league have a long-term plan, stability in leadership and exhibit patience to follow their plan. To that end, we are committed to year three of Coach Patricia’s plan. To be clear, our expectation is for the Lions to be a playoff contender in 2020.
Well, how can the Lions and head coach Matt Patricia become a playoff team in 2020?
Given Patricia’s background as a defensive coordinator in New England with the Patriots, one might expect a focus to be on that side of the football. Despite his background, the Lions have not been the defensive stalwarts that the Ford family might have thought they were getting when they made Patricia their latest head coach. The Lions placed 28th in Defensive DVOA in Patricia’s first season, the 2018 campaign.
Last year? The Lions slid to 29th.
Help, however, is on the way. During free agency Patricia lured a number of former Patriots to the NFC North, including linebacker Jamie Collins and defensive lineman Danny Shelton. They were not done bringing in former players under Patricia, as the organization traded for safety Duron Harmon. Then in the draft Detroit made cornerback Jeff Okudah their first round selection, and continued adding to their defense throughout draft weekend. Notre Dame edge rusher Julian Okwara was their pick in the third round, and Utah defensive tackle John Penisini and Ohio State defensive tackle Jashon Cornell were late Day Three picks.
So perhaps that defense can climb into, say, the 20s in terms of Defensive DVOA?
But that is not the most critical thing to watch for the Lions in 2020 from where this author sits.
No, the most critical factor for Detroit is protecting Matthew Stafford, and how well he fares when pressured.
Before diving into the numbers let’s take a step back. Stafford started all 16 games for Patricia and the Lions in 2018, but his numbers were not Stafford-like. It was the first time he threw for fewer than 4,000 yards, and his 21 touchdown passes were his lowest since 2012. He was only listed as questionable during the final weeks of the season, but it came out over the summer that he was playing with what Ian Rapoport described as “tiny fractures in his back.”
Then came the 2019 campaign. Stafford played in the first eight games of the season for the Lions, and fared very well, despite Detroit’s 3-4-1 record over that stretch. In those eight games he completed 64.3% of his passes for 2,499 yards and 19 touchdowns, against just five interceptions. That left him with an NFL quarterback rating of 106.0, and an Adjusted Yards per Attempt of 9.12, both very good numbers. Over that eight game stretch the Lions averaged 25.5 points per game.
But then, Stafford was put on ice for the rest of the season. The back injury finally forced him to the sidelines.
Over the remaining eight games of the season, under backups Jeff Driskel and David Blough, the Lions’ offense struggled. Detroit lost all eight games, and averaged just 17 points per game.
The difference with Stafford on the sidelines was obvious.
So, protecting their quarterback is critical, given the dropoff in play. The Lions added tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai in free agency, and drafted a pair of guards, Jonah Jackson from Ohio State and Logan Stenberg from Kentucky. Only time will tell if those additions are going to be enough to keep Stafford upright.
But there is another reason this is an area to watch. Beyond keeping Stafford healthy, it would behoove the Lions to keep him clean in the pocket. Last season, during that eight game stretch, Stafford threw 17 touchdowns and had an NFL passer rating of 120.0 when throwing from a clean pocket. That passer rating when kept clean was third-best in the league, behind only Ryan Tannehill and Drew Brees, according to Pro Football Focus.
When pressured? Stafford struggled. He posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 56.5% last year, which was 34th in the league, tying him with Dwayne Haskins and behind notables as Kyle Allen, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jacoby Brissett. This, unfortunately for the Lions, was not a 2019 phenomenon. In 2018 Stafford posted a pressured ACP of 64.8%, placing him 22nd in the league. Back in 2017, Stafford’s ACP of 63.5% when pressured was good for 21st in the league, behind Josh McCown, Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles.
So beyond keeping Stafford healthy, the Lions need to keep him clean. Otherwise their season might look less like the first half of 2019, and more like the second.