How the strength of remaining schedule can impact Boston’s postseason

The Boston Celtics had the 11th-toughest schedule remaining before the hiatus; where do they sit now in the East’s potential outcomes?

The Boston Celtics had the 11th-hardest schedule remaining in the NBA’s soon-to-be-resumed 2019-20, according to data shared by NBA Soundsystem’s Micah Adams.

Because those figures were based on Boston’s (and every team’s) remaining schedule before the pandemic, the schedule in front of the 22 teams who are invited to finish the season is bound to play out differently based on the format being voted on by the Board of Governors Thursday.

Pending likely approval, teams will play the next eight games on their prior schedule, sans the eight teams who will not be traveling to Orlando to finish the season.

Those teams — so bad they had no chance of making even the play-in format adopted by the league in light of pandemic’s limiting factors — helped pad Boston’s schedule before the shift in scheduling, and substituting in tougher opponents could cause some changes even if it is happening with every team.

Estimates on strength of schedule from before the suspension included games that would have been played after the eight each team will play in the resumed season, which should also change the weight of each team’s challenge in the rest of the regular season.

Boston is three games behind the second-place Toronto Raptors and 2.5 ahead of the Miami Heat, and thus almost certain to remain in the third seed no matter what happens to their Eastern Conference peers.

They’ll face the Milwaukee Bucks, Washington Wizards, Raptors, and Brooklyn Nets in their first game back, and the Wizards, Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trail Blazers and Miami Heat to close out the season.

With more than half their remaining games against sub- .500 teams, Boston may actually have one of the easiest schedules left in the resumed seasons, so a third-place finish seems all but certain.

That said the movement in the standings that could most affect them is among their potential playoff opponents.

Currently poised to face the Philadelphia 76ers, the Indiana Pacers and Miami loom as potential playoff adversaries as well with the 76ers and Pacers tied at 39-26 and the Heat just two games up on them both in the standings at 41-24.

With time off to heal, it’s possible teams like Boston, Indy and especially Philly could all be stronger than they were before the hiatus. But that same hiatus exists as an unknown in terms to how well teams will play coming out of the break in ways which will be harder to predict.

We do know that the Sixers have one of the toughest schedules left in the league, and that the Heat aren’t far behind them.

Philly plays Indiana, Toronto, Phoenix Suns and Portland for its first four games, then the Wizards, Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs.

The Pacers will play the 76ers, the Heat, Phoenix and Orlando for their first four games, followed by the Houston Rockets, Sacramento Kings, closing out against both the Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers.

The Heat are looking at games against the Bucks, Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets, followed by four more vs. the Suns and Celtics and Indiana and Boston both a second time.

This gives the 76ers a schedule on par with Boston with just three opponents with winning records remaining, the Pacers five teams with winning records, and the Heat face a murder’s row with only the Suns as a sub- .500 club left on their schedule.

Both Boston and Philadelphia may find themselves with latitude to impact the final standings with games against the Spurs and Heat to close out their respective schedules, so we could see some pretty unusual lineups from these teams to end the 2019-20 season.

Another issue to watch is the Memphis Grizzlies in the West.

With Boston controlling its 2020 first rounder, a drop out of the playoffs could in theory happen, thereby putting the pick in the lottery.

While there’s a built-in limit to some of the more unlikely outcomes with the pick owed them being top-six protected, it’s not out of the question that the Celtics find themselves with a better pick than the 17th they are currently projected to receive.

But don’t get your hopes up too high — with the New Orleans Pelicans, Kings, and Blazers in a statistical tie 3.5 games behind the Griz, it’s nothing you’d want to count on.

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