The 49ers made a splash in the first round of the NFL draft when they traded up from No. 31 instead of trading back like many anticipated they would. San Francisco packaged the 31st, 117th and 176th picks to slide up six spots to No. 25 and select wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Draft Wire listed it as one of the least valuable picks in the first round.
Draft Wire’s Luke Easterling ranked every first-round pick based on value, and Aiyuk landed at No. 24 on the list. Easterling took the player’s draft position and subtracted from the player’s place on his final big board to generate a number that determined the ‘value’ of the pick. Aiyuk checked in at No. 38 on Easterling’s board, and went No. 25 in the draft, so his value was negative-13. The highest-rated pick was Michigan OL Cesar Ruiz. He went 24th after getting ranked 16th – a plus-eight value score.
This is where the disconnect can happen between draft analysts and teams. The 49ers, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan, were ready to use the No. 13 pick on Aiyuk if Javon Kinlaw wasn’t available and they couldn’t trade back. Shanahan said Aiyuk was his favorite receiver in the draft and the metrics the team has access to put him higher on the board than his combine numbers would have.
Whatever the value was based on the 49ers’ internal player evaluations, the fact is the team bet huge on Aiyuk. The 49ers are of the mind that they got great value on Aiyuk that late in the first round.
By moving up from No. 31 and shelling out three picks to do so, the team effectively ended their draft. They didn’t pick again until the fifth round, and used one selection in each of the final three rounds. They swung big by tying up a ton of capital in their second first-round selection.
What’s interesting is that Aiyuk was doomed to be considered a bad value by Draft Wire regardless of when he got taken. The 49ers moved up because they believed the ASU product was going to get selected before the 31st pick. Miami’s move out of No. 26 indicates they may have been ready to make a play for Aiyuk. With his No. 38 ranking on Easterling’s big board, it would’ve taken a major slide for him to get into the side of positive value.
Landing toward the bottom of this list won’t matter if he plays like a first-round pick and makes an impact on the 49ers’ offense. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to do that with his skill set in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense. If he doesn’t, the value discussion will go on for a long time as San Francisco recovers from its swing and miss.
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