Even after the Atlanta Falcons signed Pro-Bowl running back Todd Gurley in free agency, many expected the team to add another complementary back in the 2020 NFL Draft.
That didn’t happen, though, as general manager Thomas Dimitroff selected defensive players with four of the Falcons’ six picks.
Atlanta’s reluctance to draft a running back suggests the team has supreme confidence in Gurley to return to form this season. This could also be a sign that Dimitroff has faith in backups Ito Smith, Brian Hill and Qadree Ollison to step in if needed.
But will the Falcons regret passing on a running back in the draft? According to an ESPN feature analyzing the biggest post-draft roster hole for each team, that could very well be the case:
At their peak with Kyle Shanahan as offensive coordinator, the Falcons had a top-10 rushing offense to pair with their exceptional passing attack and had multiple backs who could contribute as both runners and receivers. Four years later, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are gone, and their replacements, Todd Gurley and Ito Smith, are trying to overcome injuries — knee arthritis and concussions, respectively — that could persist for the rest of or even cut short their careers. So far, Gurley hasn’t missed many games, but his performance declined in 2019. He finished below average in both rushing and receiving DVOA for the second time in his career. Reserves Brian Hill and Qadree Ollison will both be 24 in September, but their pedigrees as fifth-round draft picks with below-average rushing DVOA finishes in 2019 temper optimism for their potential breakouts.
Ollison rushed for four touchdowns last season as a rookie, but averaged just 2.3 yards per carry. Smith, a fourth-round pick back in 2018, averaged 4.8 yards per carry with 11 catches before an injury prematurely ended his season in Week 10. Hill has some upside as well, averaging 4.7 yards per carry for his career and is only 24 years old.
Atlanta rushed for an underwhelming 85.1 yards per game in 2019 behind an inexperienced and injury-riddled offensive line. The team used a third-round pick on Temple’s Matt Hennessy, who figures to compete for the starting left guard job this season.
If the blocking up front doesn’t improve, though, it won’t matter who is running the ball for the Falcons in 2020.
[lawrence-related id=51042]
[vertical-gallery id=50990]