The ideology of the Big 12 has changed, and still some lag behind on what the conference is now.
During Oklahoma’s ‘down’ years from 2011-2014, the conference was run by offenses alike to Art Briles and Baylor. They spread it out. Gimmicky. Nothing in relation to what you saw in the NFL.
Lincoln Riley was hired at Oklahoma after 2014, who is one in the last in the bloodline of the air raid system from Hal Mumme and Mike Leach. The philosophy of the air raid came of being not afraid of doing something different, but the resemblance of the air raid never showed its face.
That couldn’t have been more evident in 2019 when Jalen Hurts transferred in from Alabama, but I guess one anonymous NFL AFC executive didn’t completely see that.
“The Oklahoma stuff is kind of skewed because it’s a f—— high school 7-on-7 tournament every game they play,” the anonymous NFL AFC executive told NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero. “He’s a bright kid. He’s cerebral. He doesn’t process things and see things real quick and get rid of the ball. He kind of has to see it to believe it. And then his arm is good, it’s not special. I don’t think he’s a super-instinctive player.”
There is a lot to unpack there.
Anyone that watched Oklahoma’s offense in 2017 against TCU in the Big 12 Championship game or in the Rose Bowl against Georgia knows that Baker Mayfield’s offense wasn’t the normal air raid. In 2018, I get it—Oklahoma’s defense allowed over 40 points in six games and Kyler Murray still won four of them, but Murray threw the football less than 30 times (nine games) than he did more than 30 times (five games) that season.
But in 2019, anyone who watched Hurts and Oklahoma play against Baylor in Waco, Texas, knows that it was as far from what we have seen in the Big 12 over the last decade as it can get.
Hurts etched himself in Oklahoma football history with the likes of Jack Mildren, Jamelle Holieway, Thomas Lott and Steve Davis with his ability to control the game at the quarterback position with his feet and not his arm. Mayfield, Murray and Sam Bradford are in a completely different conversation.
Now, what does that mean for Hurts’ NFL potential?
The one underlying problem in his evaluation in 2019 is his short time at Oklahoma. In comparison to what Baker Mayfield and the 2015 offense was able to accomplish by the end of the season after Mayfield and Riley only had nine months together, I think the mental leap of running Oklahoma’s offense in that short amount of time is possible.
Even Murray had his moments during his lone season in 2018 against UCLA and Texas where things didn’t seem to be moving as smoothly as he and Riley may have hoped. But he spent two years in the system before 2018, and Murray took a turn after the Texas game and led the best SP+ offense since the efficiency rating was made by ESPN’s Bill Connelly in the early to mid-2000s.
Hurts was taking strides and looked to be taking that leap until the Kansas State game in Manhattan, and then that momentum hit a plateau outside of two halves of football in the first half of Iowa State and the all-time performance in the second half of Baylor.
Missing easy touchdown throws into incredibly open windows like this:
Or not taking a first down on an easy rub route to CeeDee Lamb like this:
Or making a decision before the snap and force a throw to Lee Morris up the seam instead of letting the play develop and hit Charleston Rambo like this:
From the back side, you can see him lock in quick.
Extremely clean pocket. pic.twitter.com/pKYUaeB8gI
— Kegan Reneau (@KeganReneau) April 17, 2020
The more you dig, the more you find.
His ability to process and make the right decisions as a passer is clearly justified. Hurts’ sophomore year at Alabama and senior year at Oklahoma have a lot of evidence to support that.
But in the research, you also find a lot of good, which should give Hurts and whoever drafts him a lot of hope that he can contribute right away as his running ability is second to none. Especially his vision and patience in designed runs and natural ability to make guys miss in the second levels of the defense.
He has a big arm and makes instinctive plays with his feet more than most would probably like. Hurts doesn’t process and make the best decisions all the time—that’s justified.
Would have been a lot easier for the AFC executive to just say he didn’t think Jalen Hurts could play quarterback in the NFL, instead of making unjustified claims.
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