It’s hard to imagine another 49ers draft where they take a defensive lineman in the first round. They’ve used four of their last five top draft pick on that position. Doing so again probably wouldn’t resonate very strongly with a fan base that surely wants some kind of shake up after falling short in the Super Bowl.
Perhaps adding another defensive lineman with their first pick is the best way to operate in this year’s draft though, especially if Auburn’s Derrick Brown and/or South Carolina’s Javon Kinlaw fall to them at the 13th pick – which they acquired from the Colts for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.
Adding a player who probably won’t be as good as Buckner right away with the pick used to replace Buckner doesn’t make a whole lot of sense in a vacuum. However, considering Brown and Kinlaw both project as quality starters, adding one on a rookie contract is probably more valuable than holding onto Buckner at a price tag that checked in over $20 million.
The 49ers, despite an offensive wunderkind at head coach, rode their defense to the Super Bowl last season. Their defensive line spearheaded that effort. It’s unreasonable to expect that group to just pick up where it left off without some sort of adequate replacement for Buckner.
A downtick in production from the defensive front suddenly puts more onus on the 49ers’ secondary. While that group played well last season, it stands to reason their lives were made easier by a disruptive front that forced quarterbacks into quicker throws that limited the amount of time defensive backs had to cover down the field.
Arik Armstead can spend some time at 3-technique, but his hefty contract was deemed valuable because of his ability to play all over the line. Dropping him strictly into Buckner’s role is limiting his ability to be productive.
After that, the pickings on the 49ers’ roster of proven playmakers at that position is slim. Solomon Thomas is at his best there, but leaning on the former No. 3 overall pick to produce at a high level is a risky proposition. Jullian Taylor hasn’t done enough to earn a lion’s share of the snaps yet, and Kentavius Street hasn’t been able to stay healthy in his two NFL seasons.
Banking on any of that trio, or any other member of the 49ers’ roster, to fill the massive void Buckner left behind puts the driving force of a dominant defense in a precarious position. The trickle down effect could wind up doing severe damage to the 49ers’ Super Bowl hopes.
That’s why it’d make sense to see the 49ers jump on a defensive tackle at No. 13 – especially if one or both of Kinlaw and Brown fall.
Kinlaw is a 6-5, 324-pound force in the middle, but also carries the athleticism to slide all over the line. He may need a year or two of development to really reach his ceiling, but he’d step in and immediately be San Francisco’s best option to replace at least some of Buckner’s production, and he has the physical tools to wind up being a Pro Bowler.
Brown is about Kinlaw’s size with perhaps even more explosiveness as an interior pass rusher. He’s impossible to miss when watching Auburn because it feels like he’s in the backfield on every snap. Landing Brown, a projected top-10 pick at No. 13, might be too good to pass up, value-wise.
Speaking of value, the key argument against taking a defensive tackle is whether the impact an interior defensive lineman can have is worthy of a top-15 selection. Aaron Donald went No. 13 overall, but he is a once-in-a-generation talent. Neither Kinlaw nor Brown is on the kind of trajectory to be as dominant as Donald.
With a few other needs on the 49ers’ roster, it’s perfectly reasonable to argue they should address one of those earlier, especially if a wide receiver like Jerry Jeudy falls into their lap.
However, if Jeudy and the other top receivers are gone and the 49ers are looking at a board where one or both of Kinlaw and Brown are available, re-stacking the defensive front with cheaper talent to help alleviate the effects Buckner’s absence will have is the team’s quickest route to recapturing the formula they rode to the Super Bowl a season ago.
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