Every March when college basketball is played, commentators say, “That team will be a very tough out in the NCAA Tournament.” There is no NCAA Tournament this year, but the numbers do show that in the course of the Wisconsin Badgers’ evolution in the postseason, they have in fact become a tougher out in the NCAA Tournament.
The Badgers have played 61 games in the NCAA Tournament over the years, and 56 of them have occurred since 1994, the other five in the 1940s. Wisconsin has lost 23 games (compared to 38 wins). Only one of its losses occurred in the 1940s, so nearly all of the Badgers’ NCAA losses belong to the modern age and their revival which began in the 1990s.
There is a very clear line of demarcation which separates Wisconsin’s NCAA Tournament losses into two groups.
Wisconsin’s first 15 NCAA Tournament losses — the first in 1947, the second one in 1994, leading up to the 15th loss in 2010 — involved an average margin of defeat which was just over 12 points per game. The 15 losses were absorbed by a combined margin of 181 points.
Wisconsin’s next eight NCAA Tournament losses, from 2011 through 2019, took on a very different nature. Those eight losses occurred by an average margin of just over six points per game, roughly half the average margin of the first 15 losses. The combined margin of defeat in those eight games was 49 points.
Wisconsin’s overall margin of defeat in its 23 NCAA Tournament losses is 230 points, creating an average of 10 points per loss. That number comes from the 12-points-per-game losses having a sample size which is nearly double the 6-points-per-game group of losses.
From 2011 through 2019, Wisconsin has lost only two NCAA Tournament games by more than seven points, only one by more than 11. That was 2019’s 18-point blowout loss to Oregon in the first round. From 2011 through 2017, Wisconsin’s seven NCAA Tournament losses occurred by a combined margin of just 31 points, for an average of just over 4.4 points per game.
This isn’t knee-jerk “gut instinct” talk radio; this is an analysis of the numbers: Yes, Wisconsin has become a tougher out in the NCAA Tournament over the years. Unfortunately, the Badgers didn’t get a chance to show how tough they were in the 2020 NCAA Tournament. No team got that chance.