NFL teams can of course “win” free agency by bidding high on the biggest-ticket players and having those players perform as expected. But for every one of those positive examples, it seems that there’s at least two cases in which big-money signings go south. More often than not, teams that come out of free agency with the best possible cost/benefit ratio are the ones that are able to identify under-the-radar players who fit their specific schemes and coaching staffs.
Sometimes, those players are underrated because it just took a while for the proverbial light to go on. Other times, it is that example of a player’s skill set finally fitting into the ideal playbook. And then, there are those times when a player who has previously disappointed signs on the cheap somewhere and performs to his potential both physically and personally.
Whatever the reasons, here are 11 upcoming free agents that could make their current teams — or their new teams — very happy for the money spent.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
The NFL has one question for Ryan Tannehill as it heads into the 2020 league year: Was 2019 a fluke, or is this what we can expect from now on?
Here’s what we know: When he took the Titans’ starting job from an ineffective Marcus Mariota in Week 7, Tannehill had thrown 123 touchdowns and 75 interceptions in a decent, but hardly sparkling, six-year tenure with the Dolphins. But something clicked with Tannehill and Tennessee offensive coordinator Arthur Smith (who you should put on your short lists of future head coaches). The Titans were 2-4 after Mariota’s last start, having scored seven total points in their last two games. They then finished the season 9-7 and made it all the way to the AFC Championship game with Tannehill, who led the league in yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, yards per completion, net yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt, and quarterback rating.
Tannehill finished ninth in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (season-cumulative opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics) among quarterbacks, and fifth in DVOA (FO’s per-play opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics) when he had finished 31st and 32nd in those ratings the year before. Tannehill also added a much-needed deep passing element to Tennessee’s offense, completing 26 of 65 passes of 20 or more air yards for 611 yards, five touhdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 108.0. Only Lamar Jackson and Kirk Cousins threw more play-action touchdowns than Tannehill’s 11, and when you add in his athleticism to break the pocket, he certainly looks like a complete quarterback, however he got here.
The tape confirms that Tannehill has become a nuanced player, expert in many of the required facets of the quarterback position, Those who argue against his ascent using the one-year wonder theory may be missing the point — every player is different, and not all are subject to the confines of historical modeling. Tannehill is a system quarterback like every other quarterback, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t arrived.