Yes, I know that after making the Final Four in 2014 and 2015, Wisconsin basketball strives to return to college basketball’s ultimate weekend in early April. This isn’t a case of a cute, cuddly mid-major such as Loyola-Chicago making a Cinderella run to the Final Four in 2018. The Ramblers and Virginia Commonwealth (2011) and George Mason (2006) cannot and should not expect to make repeat trips to the Final Four. That’s not realistic, and no one needs an explanation on that point.
Wisconsin, however, can realistically aspire to make more Final Fours — not once every two or three years (which is a blue-blood standard of expectation), but once every several years. Given that point, one shouldn’t generally view the Sweet 16 as a resounding, remarkable success story for Wisconsin. That is merely where the Badgers ought to be most seasons. It isn’t the summit of this program’s hopes and dreams. This should be a second-weekend program in the NCAA Tournament. On that point, you won’t find much disagreement among Wisconsin fans.
However, not every season is going to align all the stars and set up the dominoes to fall in just the right order. This season has certainly qualified as an example of a situation in which the Badgers were not set up to succeed. This was a season in which they were set up to fail.
Micah Potter wasn’t allowed to play 10 games. Kobe King left the team in late January. Brad Davison got suspended for the Michigan State home game. The strength and conditioning coach, Erik Helland, resigned under very bizarre circumstances, seemingly under outside pressure which overstated the severity of Helland’s actions and sabotaged a career for an insubstantial reason.
Lesser teams with worse coaching would have crumbled in the face of what the 2020 Badgers have dealt with. This team stayed together, and as a result, it is virtually certain (almost a lock — just one or two more wins) to make the 2020 NCAA Tournament. That alone is an enormous achievement if one adjusts for specific circumstances. Wisconsin has succeeded in spite of the adversity and controversy thrown in its direction.
No, UW isn’t yet an NCAA lock, but it’s reasonable to discuss Wisconsin as an NCAA Tournament team. That isn’t premature or irresponsible at this point. Given that the Badgers are extremely likely to Dance, let’s ask the question: What would be a good NCAA Tournament result for this team?
This is where we go back to the Sweet 16 discussion several paragraphs above. In most years, a Sweet 16 would be “just doing what Wisconsin should normally do.” This isn’t most years.
This is a year in which a Sweet 16, with THIS team and THESE limitations under THESE circumstances, would feel like a Final Four in terms of the enormity of the achievement on an adjusted scale.
Wisconsin’s seed range appears to be anywhere from a 6 to an 8. Let’s briefly discuss which teams the Badgers might play in the Round of 32 if they get out of the Round of 64.
Wisconsin, if it is a No. 6 seed, could face third-seeded Kentucky in the second round of March Madness. Imagine Greg Gard and UW beating John Calipari, five years after Wisconsin shattered Kentucky’s dream of a perfect 40-0 season at the 2015 Final Four. A win over Kentucky would certainly feel like a Final Four victory, even though the Badgers would “only” punch a ticket to the Sweet 16.
Wisconsin, if it is a No. 7 seed, could face second-seeded Duke in the second round. Imagine beating Coach K with this Badger roster. Holy cow! It would be an epic conquest.
Wisconsin, if it is a No. 8 seed, could face top-seeded Baylor in the second round. Wisconsin beat Scott Drew and Baylor in the 2014 Sweet 16. Being able to once again take care of the Bears — but this time under Gard, not Bo Ryan — would give the Badgers even more staying power than the already-large supply they already have.
Beating Kentucky, or Duke, or Gonzaga wouldn’t give Wisconsin a Final Four berth this year, but gosh, it would sure feel like it, given all the hardships this team has been through.
Yes, Wisconsin basketball doesn’t view the Sweet 16 as its ceiling, but a Sweet 16 in 2020 would feel like a far greater accomplishment.