The Denver Nuggets (38-17) visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (33-22) for a Friday 8 p.m. ET tip-off at Chesapeake Energy Arena. We analyze the Nuggets-Thunder odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
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Nuggets at Thunder: Key injuries
Nuggets
- SG Will Barton (knee) questionable
- C Bol Bol (foot) out
Thunder
- SF Darius Bazley (knee) out
- SF Andre Roberson (knee) out
Nuggets at Thunder: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Nuggets 108, Thunder 103
Moneyline (ML)
The Nuggets continued their domination of the Thunder in their first meeting back on Dec. 14, winning 110-102 for their seventh consecutive victory in the rivalry. Additionally, the Nuggets have played great against division foes, going 9-0 vs. Northwest Division clubs, averaging a 9.6 margin of victory. For all the love Denver receives as a home team, it should get more praise for having the fifth-highest winning percentage in road games. What jumped out at me and makes me confident in betting the NUGGETS (+100) to win outright is the edge they have in Per 100 Possession categories. Both teams are having a great season, but Denver is ranked seventh in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating; Oklahoma City is 14th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating.
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Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
The Thunder -1.5 (-110) are a slight favorite. One needs to lay -110 to get 1.5 points of insurance to back the Nuggets. Let’s PASS since we have a narrow line and should just play the moneyline. Here are some ATS trends that strengthen our ML handicap:
- The Nuggets have covered 10 straight games against the Thunder.
- Oklahoma City is just 9-10 ATS as a home favorite. Denver is 6-4-1 this season as a road ‘dog.
- Denver has the best ATS winning percentage following a loss with a 10-3-3 record.
Over/Under (O/U)
The last two Nuggets-Thunder meetings went Under the projected total and the Nuggets have a 2-7 O/U record in games against division opponents. Their combined O/U record is 52-57-1 so the game is most likely to go Under. Also, these teams have played a combined three games with four or more rest days and the O/U record is 0-3 in those games. I lean UNDER 216.5 (-115).
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