Darius Slay: Predicting his next contract, his future with the Lions and beyond

Darius Slay: Predicting his next contract, his future with the Detroit Lions and beyond

Don’t blame Darius Slay for believing he should be the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL. And certainly don’t blame Slay for trying to get that in his next contract.

Don’t expect that type of contract offer to come from the Detroit Lions, either.

Slay is entering the final year of his 4-year, $48,150,000 contract extension he inked in July of 2016. His salary of just over $12 million a year currently ranks 14th among NFL cornerbacks.

The eye test will tell anyone that Slay is better than the 14th-best CB in the NFL over the last four years. That’s even true coming off a down season where he scored his lowest Pro Football Focus grades across the board since his rookie campaign back in 2013.

Slay has earned the “Big Play” nickname as one of the best playmaking and coverage corners in the NFL over the past few seasons. He’s a better player than Xavien Howard of the Dolphins, who is the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL at $15.05 million per year. He’s a more reliable player than Josh Norman of the Redskins, owner of the richest overall CB contract at $75 million. He’s certainly better than Trumaine Johnson, who makes $14.5 million a year and $72.5 million overall on a deal he signed in 2018.

But the Lions need to know better than to pay for what he’s done. That’s what the Redskins did in paying Norman, and they surely regret it. Heck, Washington benched Norman during their loss to the Lions this past season.

Slay’s next contract is only about what he will do during the life of that new contract, not the great play he’s provided for several seasons. That’s the reality of NFL economics. It’s a concept the Lions should know and have proven to practice in the past. See: Ndamukong Suh and Golden Tate. And the Lions were right on both fronts.

Is Slay worth $16 million a year (or more) after 2020, when he’ll be beyond 30 years old? It’s possible. I certainly don’t fault him for asking for that much. Slay, like all NFL players, is trying to maximize his earnings while he still can. If he doesn’t ask for it, he’ll never get it from the Lions or anyone else. Good for him for going after every last penny he can get.

But Slay needs to understand the Lions aren’t going to be the team that gives it to him. Nor should they, even though he’s been the team’s best defensive player for the last half of a decade and across multiple schemes and different coaches. The odds are extremely slim that Slay is going to get better at his age, and the Lions cannot afford to risk that kind of cap room and cash betting on 23 in a one-spin roulette wheel.

If it means trading him to get back some appreciable return, so be it. The return has to be higher, no, much higher than the compensatory pick — if those will even still exist under any new collective bargaining agreement — the Lions would get for letting Slay walk after the season and signing a huge deal elsewhere.

Just as Slay is right for asking for the most return he can get, the Lions would need to do the same. A first-round pick in 2020 must be the minimum price tag right now. My belief is that a motivated Slay playing for his last big payday is worth more in one year than a 3rd-round compensatory pick would ever deliver over the life of what the 98th player drafted in 2022 would contribute. I believe the Lions will feel the same, but that’s just my guess.

My prediction: the Lions shop Slay but don’t get the desired asking price. Slay plays the entire 2020 season in Detroit and does so without being a distraction. I strongly suspect he’ll get back to the All-Pro caliber player he was in 2017-2018, and then cash in with a lucrative contract (best guess: 2 years, $30.8 million fully guaranteed with a team option) somewhere else as a free agent in the winter of 2021. I’ll wish him well and still root for Slay, too.

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