USA TODAY bracketologists Shelby Mast and Scott Gleeson released their set of bracket projections on Monday, February 10, under five weeks before Selection Sunday. Yep, we are racing toward the 2020 NCAA Tournament. There are fewer than 20 days left until March. Teams are accumulating enough results that we can BEGIN to assess how good a resume they will have on Selection Sunday. We can’t make final assumptions just yet, but unless teams go on six-game streaks — winning or losing — we will have a general feel for the quality of various wins and losses on a resume.
Within this context, where do the Wisconsin Badgers stand? Mast and Gleeson have the Badgers as a No. 9 seed. This is lower than the No. 7 seed Joe Lunardi gave Wisconsin a few weeks ago. The value of a win over Michigan State is going down. That’s one explanation. The blowout loss to Minnesota weakened Wisconsin’s NET rating. That is another explanation. However, a No. 9 seed still means 10 teams (or thereabouts) separate Wisconsin from exclusion from the NCAA Tournament. Not all 10 of those teams seeded lower than Wisconsin on a 1-68 seed list are going to get better in the coming weeks.
Also realize that in the Big Ten, Wisconsin will continue to get opportunities to bag quality wins over well-rated teams due to the conference’s considerable depth, which is unmatched in college basketball this season. Any quality win provides insurance against a negative development.
What would be a negative development, you might ask? In microcosm, losing to Nebraska or Northwestern. On a larger level, a three- or four-game losing streak would genuinely imperil the Badgers’ position.
However, if Wisconsin can merely avoid losing to Nebraska and Northwestern, and pick off three other wins before Selection Sunday, this team will not get left out of the Big Dance. Wisconsin has a minimum of eight games left. Most are at home. None are against the top four in the Big Ten right now — Maryland, Penn State, Illinois, or Iowa. Two are against Nebraska and Northwestern. One of these eight games is Wisconsin’s first game at the Big Ten Tournament, so that opponent isn’t known.
For all of this team’s flaws, and for all the adverse events which have visited it this season, Wisconsin should definitely be able to go 5-3 in these next eight games. Even at 4-4, UW would have a decent chance, provided it doesn’t lose to the two NU schools, but 5-3 would make it impossible for Wisconsin to miss the tournament.
Again: Just avoid a three- or four-game losing streak. Simple.