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There is no juicier sporting event to bet on than the 2020 Super Bowl. Aside from picking the San Francisco 49ers or Kansas City Chiefs to win, a sharp can win money via player prop betting. Let’s analyze, and pick, BetMGM‘s Super Bowl prop betting odds and lines for 49ers WR Deebo Samuel’s receptions and receiving yards projections.
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 7:45 p.m. ET.
Deebo Samuel’s 2020 Super Bowl receptions: 4.5
Don’t sleep on the Chiefs pass defense. They have given up the fewest catches and receiving yards to wide receivers this season. Kansas City has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards and, according to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have the sixth-best pass defense by their DVOA metric.
The biggest thing keeping Samuel away from going Over on his receptions props could be the 49ers themselves. Positive game script for San Francisco is them bludgeoning the Chiefs defense with the run. Plus, the 49ers’ most dynamic pass-catcher is TE George Kittle. Acquiring WR Emmanuel Sanders at the trade deadline before Week 8 added yet another option for QB Jimmy Garoppolo. In the 15 games in which Samuel has played this season, he has caught five or more balls in only five games. His 68.9% catch rate ranks 68th in the NFL but Samuel’s 5.29 targets per game ranks 85th.
BetMGM has factored in these things before making their line, hence the Under 4.5 catches is juiced to -143. The math says this prop goes Under so swallow the vig and BET DEEBO SAMUEL UNDER 4.5 CATCHES (-143).
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Deebo Samuel’s Super Bowl LIV receiving yards: 56.5
It’s almost guaranteed head coaches Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid will dial-up exquisite shot plays. They’ve been doing it all year. Both have the play design and personnel to throw the kitchen sink at each other.
The Chiefs’ secondary has played well all season long but their best player is All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu, and it makes sense if his main assignments are Kittle and the 49ers’ vaunted ground game. San Francisco is tied with the New England Patriots for the fourth-most pass plays of 20-plus yards, and Samuel had 18 of those in his 15 regular season and postseason games played. So, between the 49ers’ powerful rushing attack and the explosive Kittle, expect Garoppolo to take some shots downfield against one-on-one coverage to his wideouts. BET DEEBO SAMUEL OVER 56.5 RECEIVING YARDS (+100).
Also see:
- Super Bowl LIV Betting Guide
- Super Bowl LIV: 7 player prop bets to cash in on
- 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl odds: Chiefs slight favorites over 49ers
Want action on this game or prop bets? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.
Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
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